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Snow and Rain

Snow and Rain

Partly Cloudy

Snow and Rain



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Australian Alps Detailed Forecast

The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

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With stores in, Erina, Jinadabyne and Parramatta

7:00am Monday 29 August 2016

Conditions Summary:
It is mostly clear with light north-westerly winds and temperatures between 0 and -5c.

Synoptic Outlook:
Things really aren’t looking great over the next week folks. We are in for mild temperatures and a double dose of rain – prepare to lose quite a bit of base!

Today will be partly cloudy with very mild northerly winds between a high out east and a low spinning in The Bight. It will be very spring-like with soft snow. Those northerlies will strengthen tomorrow as a front moves in from the west. Light rain will start to fall tomorrow evening and intensify overnight and into Wednesday morning. I am going to go for 25-50mm which is more than our model is showing - I don’t think it is capturing the tropical moisture associated with this front that well. The rain should start to clear off midday Wednesday as the front heads into the Tasman. Thursday will be partly cloudy under a ridge of high pressure, way up in the Northern Territory a low will start to form…

Image Of The Day:

Hmmm just what we didn’t want, the front out west will give us a dose of rain mid-week. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Monday 29 August:
Partly cloudy. Light north-westerly winds. Very mild.

Tuesday 30 August:
Increasing cloud. Strengthening northerly winds. Light rain developing during the evening will intensify overnight.

Wednesday 31 August:
Strong north-westerly winds turning westerly. Rain during the morning will clear off midday but it’ll stay mostly cloudy through the afternoon.

Thursday 1 September:
Partly cloudy. Mild.

Extended Outlook:
The low that will birth over the Northern Territory on Thursday will head for the Aussie Alps on Friday with the models indicating that it will pass just to the east. This storm track would bring heavy rain to NSW (with much lesser amounts in VIC) from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning before the low clears off into the Tasman during the afternoon. Unfortunately, there is no real cold air associated with this system so the precipitation will be all rain. If this pans out as the model consensus (and our model) suggests we could be looking at an additional 40-80mm of rain in NSW with much less in VIC (10-30mm). The Bureau model goes for slightly less precipitation than the others. Taking into account this Wednesday’s rain 100mm+ rainfall for this week is certainly not out of the question in NSW. This event is still a fair way out so there is a chance the storm track may change. I have my antennae and all my legs crossed that something changes!

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me join in the discussion below, or hit me up on facebook or twitter.

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