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Hotham

For 1850m - last updated 57 minutes ago

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Snow Flurries

Snow Flurries

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Snow

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Snow

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Snow: 1.8 cm Snow: 1.0 cm Snow: 0.0 cm Snow: 0.4 cm Snow: 2.9 cm Snow: 13.9 cm Snow: 2.1 cm
Snow: cm
Temp: °C
Freezing Level: m
Rain: mm
Wind: km/h
Wind: km/h
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Australian Alps Detailed Forecast

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The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

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7:30am Sunday 5 July 2015

Conditions Summary:
Looks like snow-making was a challenge again. We’re getting by, but that’s about it.

Synoptic Outlook:
A surge of cold air from tomorrow into Tuesday is now looking like a real dud, with the high pressures of El Nino again winning the battle and weakening the feature before it arrives. Yesterday I said we were back to expecting around 5 to 10cm, with a 20% chance of 20cm. Now we’re talking 5cm with a 10% chance of 10cm. Break my heart. It will help, but a high takes control Wednesday/Thursday and the extended outlook is where the real hope lies.

Image of the day:

The high is back in control. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Sunday 5 July:
Fine, a bit cloudy in VIC, with strengthening north-westerlies.

Monday 6 July:
A little snow.

Tuesday 7 July:
A little snow.

Wednesday 8 July:
Becoming fine.

Extended Outlook:
The best hope of some decent snow is still 11 to 14 July, but unfortunately there’s a bit less agreement amongst the various computer models today. Cold air does not look like it will be an issue; with high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east we’re assured of several days of cold south-west to southerly flow.

The big question is whether we get the moisture to combine with that cold air to create snow. Yesterday, I was getting good signals wherever I looked and so 30 to 50cm was the call if those forecasts could hold. Today I’m just seeing a couple of uncertain wobbles in the weather pattern which means I’m going to hedge my bets a little wider and call this 10 to 50cm. Long story short, the upside potential is still very much in play, but a bit more downside has crept in. It happens.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me join in the discussion below, or hit me up on facebook or twitter.


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