Australian Alps Detailed Forecast

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The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

Thursday 20 June 2013

Conditions Summary:
Clawing our way towards a few more open runs. Dustings of snow here and there. It should have been all snow-guns blazing overnight as temperatures dropped nice and low.

Synoptic Outlook:
The question everyone is asking me is whether the rain and snow that is in the forecast for the weekend is real. Unfortunately, I don’t think so, at least not in the quantities you’re seeing in the forecast data above, and I told Reggae Ellis to flip a coin.

We’ve got a ridge of high pressure over us today. Tomorrow that ridge holds firm while a low approaches from the west, but can’t quite make it, and another low forms off the NSW coast, but is probably just a little too far away to make a difference. Pretty soon I’m going to start talking about bad luck, because we’ve had a bit of it the last month – first with the rain, and lately with a trio of lows that were or will be only a couple of hundred kilometres away from delivering a good dump. Still, the encouraging thing is that, as expected, we are seeing a lot of weather. We only need one of these to hit the spot and this season will be all on. Frustrating wait though eh?

The question for Saturday is: Can that low to the east burrow in just a little bit more, down towards Nowra rather than dicking around up near Port Macquarie. If it can then snow on Sunday is still possible, but the majority of models hold it too far north.

Thursday 20 June:
Mostly fine, but still cold.

Friday 21 June:
Mostly fine, but still cold.

Saturday 22 June:
Chance of some patchy snow.

Sunday:
Chance of some patchy snow.

Extended Outlook:
All I’ve got right now is a slim hope for a couple of cold fronts near the end of the month. They don’t fill me with confidence, but I’ll track them nonetheless and bring you daily updates.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Got a question or feedback for me? Hit me up at grasshoppermw@gmail.com or join in the Facebook discussion below.