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South Island Detailed Forecast

The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The South Island analysis is issued around 7am every morning (maybe later on weekends) and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

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7:00am Sunday 25 June 2017

Conditions Summary:
It is currently clear with light winds and temperatures between -3c and -7c in Otago. It is cloudy with heavy snow in The Canterbury High Country where we have light southerly winds and temps of -2.9c at Mt Hutt.

Synoptic Outlook:
Today will be a fine day today for most ski fields as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. The exception to the rule is The Canterbury High Country which will see a pulse of heavy snow this morning as a weak cold front moves through. After a clear start tomorrow morning cloud will start to drift into Otago through the afternoon and winds will strengthen from the north-west as another cold front moves in from the west. Most of the precipitation with this front will get rinsed out on The Divide. However, a few light snow showers or flurries can be expected from tomorrow evening into Tuesday morning giving a dusting in places. Things will become sunnier on Tuesday afternoon as high pressure starts to build in from the west. It will stay sunny on Wednesday under the high.

Image of the day:

This morning’s cloud and snow in The Canterbury High Country is clearly visible on today’s satellite image. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Sunday 25 June:
Sunny in Otago with moderate westerly winds. Up to 5cm of snow for The Canterbury High Country this morning, skies will clear this afternoon. Light winds.

Monday 26 June:
A fine start. Strong north-westerly winds developing. Becoming cloudier in the afternoon. Light snow showers/flurries overnight.

Tuesday 27 June:
Strong winds during the morning with light snow showers/flurries. Lighter winds during the afternoon with clearing skies.

Wednesday 28:
Mostly fine.

Extended Outlook:
Thursday will stay mostly fine under the high. Things start to get a bit trickier after Thursday. A low will approach from the Tasman. The track of this low will determine the weather we will see next weekend. The model consensus is that the low will take a northerly track towards the North Island. This would favour southerlies and snow developing in The Canterbury High Country. However, the other possibility is that the low will track south giving us northerly winds and heavy rain on The Divide. At this point I’d say there is a 50/50 chance of either of these outcomes so you will have to check back tomorrow to see how things are shaping up.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me join in the discussion below, or hit me up on facebook or twitter.

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