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South Island Detailed Forecast

The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The South Island analysis is issued around 7am every morning (maybe later on weekends) and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

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7:00am Friday 23 June 2017

Conditions Summary:
It is overcast with light snow down to 700m In the Canterbury High Country. It is partly cloudy in Otago with light to moderate south-easterly winds. Temperatures are generally between -1c and -5c.

Synoptic Outlook:
Snow will continue to get driven onto The Canterbury High Country today as a low over Northland starts to head south. Strong southerly winds will push an additional 4-10cm of snow down to 1000m before the day is out. It now looks like we will avoid the worst of the rain. However, it will become milder through this afternoon/evening meaning that we will see some light rain showers below 1700m. Wanaka and The Southern Lakes, too far away from the influence of the North Island low, will be partly cloudy with just a few flurries about the peaks.

Tomorrow will be mostly fine in Otago and The Southern Lakes under a weak high. Winds will strengthen from the west through the afternoon as a weak cold front approaches from the Tasman. The Canterbury High country will see the last few remaining showers (falling as snow above 1800m) fizzle out during the early morning hours as the North Island low starts to pull away to the east. The weak cold front moves through tomorrow night before clearing east from Canterbury around midday on Sunday. It will give 2-5cm of snow in Otago with 5-10 cm on the cards for The Canterbury High Country which will benefit again from a brief shot of southerlies. A high will then slide in from the Tasman again on Monday hot on the heels of the cold front. It will settle things down giving us mostly sunny skies.

Image of the day:

The snow in The Canterbury High Country this morning is being driven up by a low over Northland. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Friday 23 June:
Light snow showers in The Canterbury High Country (5-10cm to 1000m rising to 1700m in the late afternoon/evening). Strong southerlies. Partly cloudy, occasional flurries and mod. winds in Otago.

Saturday 24 June:
Mostly fine in Otago, winds strengthening from the west. 2-5cm of snow overnight. Cloudy in The Canterbury High Country with light showers first thing (snow above 1800m). Light winds.

Sunday 25 June:
Cloudy with Moderate southerlies and 5-10cm of snow during the morning in The Canterbury High Country. Mostly fine in Otago with light winds.

Monday 26 June:
Mostly fine. Moderate north-westerly winds.

Extended Outlook:
A low passing to the south of the South Island throws a cold front our way on Monday night. Most of the rain in association with this front will get caught up on The Divide but between 5-15cm should work its way into Otago ski fields. The Canterbury High Country will only scrape a dusting. High pressure will then dominate the scene for a while. A weak low moving up from the south could give some light snow towards the end of the week. Watch out for the 2/3 July when a big storm rolling in from the Tasman could give us a period of milder temperatures and rain followed by a significant cold and snowy south-west outbreak.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me join in the discussion below, or hit me up on facebook or twitter.

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