New Zealand Forecast, June 19th – Plenty of Blue Skies & Plenty of Uncertainty as NE Flow Lingers

June 19th, 2023
Early season conditions in Cardrona which opened two lifts accessing limited terrain on the weekend. Photo: Cardrona

Mountainwatch | The Grasshopper

Valid Monday 19thJune to Wednesday 21stJune

It was a great weekend with blues skies over the Southern Lakes for opening days at Cardrona, Remarkables and Coronet Peak. Canterbury was also mint before the NE muck pushed in yesterday afternoon.

Today’s forecast comes with a caveat as models are considerably all over the show. With a humid NE flow still hanging over NZ like a bad smell, while a low spins up in the Tasman Sea and a front lies along the east coast, it’s understandable – small deviations in these features could lead to drastically different conditions from the forecast.

I’ve gone for the most likely scenario, which happens to be perhaps the nicest and brightest. However, in other scenarios, the precipitation in Canterbury may linger more much longer on Monday, and possibly return for periods during Tuesday and/or Wednesday. In this case, we could also see more cloud and possibly a spot of rain about the Southern Lakes.

Latest pressure analysis and satellite image. Source: The BOM

Monday 19th

A little morning cloud for the Southern Lakes, but it’ll be mostly sunny above the inversion layer down in the valleys and basins. Light N-NE breezes.

Light rain/drizzle falling as snow above 1800m will clear Canterbury early this morning and the cloud should break up about the upper slopes, although there’ll be some high cloud partially blocking out the sun. NE Winds.

Tuesday 20th

Mostly fine up on the ski resorts above the low cloud, with just a little high cloud chandelier. Light N-NE breezes.

Wednesday 21st

A repeat of the day before! Fine up above the low cloud, with high cloud building throughout the afternoon. Light N-NE breezes.

Extended Forecast

Northeasterlies continue for the rest of the week, with rain and high level snow possibly returning to Canterbury for Friday and Saturday while the low passes over the top of the country. Resorts in the Southern Lakes should have nothing more than sunshine and cloud to contend with.

That’s all from me today, folks. See you again on Wednesday!