The Grasshopper – The Latest Snow Forecast
DETAILED FORECAST
Australian Forecast Monday October 1st – Fine and windy, then rain on Monday
Valid Thursday 1st October – Monday 5th October
High pressure sliding by to the north will bring sunny skies later today through into Sunday, but NW winds will gradually warm and strengthen and blow a gale this weekend, which will be one more nail in the coffin for our snowpack
Closing day at Perisher on Monday is unfortunately going to be a wet one, as a slow moving front works it’s way across the Aussie Alps. However, cold air and snow is likely during the following days.
This is my last forecast of the season guys. It’s been a bumpy ride, but we’ve had some fun along the way. I’m going to hit the backcountry while there’s snow here, and then head up north to colder climes once it gets too hot here for my little grasshopper feet.
Thursday 1st
Any remaining showers or drizzle should gradually clear to a sunny afternoon. Brisk westerly winds.
Friday 2nd
Not a cloud in sight, but W-NW winds will be quite strong.
Saturday 3rd
Another sunny day, with strong NW winds again, reaching gale up top.
Sunday 4th
Mostly fine, but cloud will build over Victorian resorts during the afternoon with rain developing there after dark. Strong, warm NW winds will be blowing a gale in exposed areas.
Monday 5th
Rain in Victoria spreading to NSW. Heavy falls possible, and gale NW winds will gradually abate.
Extended Outlook
Next week, cold air pushing up from the south should bring snow to the Aussie Alps Tuesday night through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday. Accumulations look to be in the 5-15cm range, but there is the potential for more on the southern slopes of Victoria.
Looking further ahead, there is the potential for snow around the 12th-13th of October.
That’s all from me guys, enjoy what we have left. I’ll get amongst the northern hemisphere once it starts dumping snow up there, so keep an eye out for that in a couple of months time.
Grasshopper
New Zealand forecast Thursday 1st October – Todays the day! Strong, warm NW winds to follow!!!
Valid Thursday 1st October – Monday 5th October
We have a clear day in the South Island, revealing mountains laden with fresh snow after the recent icy blast out of Antarctica dropped up to 50cm across kiwi ski fields. It was perhaps the biggest dump the Southern Lakes has seen this whole season. If you aren’t already up the mountain, then drop everything and run, because conditions won’t remain this good for long.
Although a couple of weak fronts NW winds will bring a scattering of rain late Friday and early Saturday, and again late Saturday, the main issue will be warm NW winds. These will pick up during Friday and reach severe gale at times over the weekend and Monday and no doubt affect lift operations. This will also chew through a sizeable chunk of this gorgeous look snowpack.
This is my last forecast of the season guys. I’m going to make the most of what’s left, and then head up north to colder climes once it gets too hot here for my little grasshopper feet.
Note: The detailed forecast below is for ski fields in Canterbury and the Southern Lakes.
Thursday 1st
A fine start to the day, then high cloud will increase as NW winds kick in.
Friday 2nd
Some mid-high cloud overhead, then scattered rain developing over the Southern Lakes from late afternoon. NW winds strengthening, rising to gale in exposed areas.
Saturday 3rd
Plenty of mid-high cloud again, with scattered rain over Canterbury ski fields during the first half of the morning. Scattered rain over southern Lakes fields from evening. Strong NW winds will be blowing a gale-severe gale in exposed areas.
Sunday 4th
Fine with mid-high cloud, with severe gale W-NW winds!
Monday 5th
Fine with mid-high cloud again. NW winds still be strong, with gales exposed areas rising to severe gale.
Extended Outlook
Fortunately, all those warm NW winds will come to and end next week with a cold front passing over the South Island during Tuesday, giving ski fields a nice top-up in the process. We may see a few more light snow showers during Wednesday and/or Thursday before a bout of happy high pressure leads us into a warm, wet weekend – a weekend that will be the last for many of NZ ski fields this season.
That’s all from me today, guys. I’ll get amongst the northern hemisphere once it starts dumping snow up there, so keep an eye out for that in a couple of months time.
Grassshopper
Weekly Japanese Forecast – A mixed week with some big snowfalls
Valid Thursday 12th March to Thursday 19th March
Well, here we are folks, the last forecast of the season. It’s been an interesting season to say the least, and this week’s forecast will stick with the trend.
First up, we have freshies out there today, then Hokkaido and Northern Honshu cop a nice dump of 10-20cm+ during Friday. The cold front that brings this dump will stall just north of central Honshu, and when a low swings past there during Saturday there’ll be heavy rain down low, but something like 15-25cm of new snow up higher.
We barely bat an eyelid before a second low brings us more snow from later on Sunday, through Monday and into early Tuesday. Wednesday and next Thursday is likely to bring another large mix of rain and snow.
Thursday – Friday
After a nice top-up last night to repair some of the damage from earlier in the week, we’re left with the tail end of the cold W-NW winds and snow showers. That should all clear up this morning as winds turn to the SW and temps start to rise.
Those warm SW winds will strengthen overnight. Fortunately, a rather vigorous cold front passes over Hokkaido and northern Honshu during Friday morning and afternoon, briefly dumping a heavy load of wetter-than-usual snow, followed by light n’ fluffy snow showers and cold westerlies.
Some of those snow showers should also reach parts of Central Honshu later Friday afternoon, but temps won’t be as cold, so it’ll fall as the wet stuff on low-mid slopes.
Saturday – Tuesday
With the cold air parked just north of Central Honshu, a low swings past on the Pacific Side. There’ll be heavy precipitation over central Honshu and moderate falls over the southern half of Northern Honshu, but due to the placement of that cold air, the former will see rain on lower slopes while the latter should receive snow to low levels.
Northerlies in the wake of the low will pull the cold air down over all of Honshu with a few snow showers about the place early Sunday.
With barely a breath in-between, a second low will bear down from the north, starting snowfalls off over Central Honshu Sunday afternoon and continuing through Monday as the low passes overhead.
As the low tracks away to the east during the latter half of Monday, even colder NW winds will sweep over Japan, also bringing snow showers to northern Honshu and Hokkaido.
Remaining snow showers clear Tuesday as warm SW winds kick-up again.
Wednesday – next Thursday
A system from the west is likely to bring heavy precipitation to Honshu on Wednesday and possibly into early next Thursday. Temps don’t look crazy warm at this stage, so snow should fall on low slopes, but maybe not quite to base levels at least until slightly colder NW winds hit.
Hokkiado may also receive a hefty dump from cold westerlies later next Thursday – it’s a big MAYBE at this stage
ECMWF 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
That’s all from me for Japan this season. I won’t be putting my feet up for long however, because the southern Hemisphere is starting to chill off, and you know what that means!
Weekly North America Forecast – Deep blower pow for most, but patient Sierras to reap the biggest reward
Valid Thursday 12th March to Thursday 19th March
This is it folks, my last forecast for the North American season. And what a way to sign off from an exceptional season; there is so much snow falling this week it was a real challenge putting it into words.
Significant low pressure stewing over the states will see an icy airmass descend southwards, providing deep blower powder for most. The big news, however, is the 60-120cm+ that is expected to fall in the Sierras. They say that a quiet winter will bring a busy spring, and that certainly looks to be the case this season.
Snow accumulations of 25-50cm+ can be found throughout the Rockies and Cascades, while the Coast Mountains of Canada will take a well-deserved breather with just a sprinkling of a few centimetres.
Thursday – Sunday
Low pressure boils up over states during the next few days. This drags a cold arctic airmass from the icy interior down over Canada, and into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Super fluffy, feather-like snow will follow suit.
Skies will mostly clear over these northern areas this weekend, giving you that amazing crispy winter feeling with powder to shred, but the snow will keep coming down over southern Idaho, Montana and Wyoming during Sunday and into Monday as this area marks the boundary between the icy easterly airstream, and warm moist southerlies to the south.
Sucked in by the low pressure, these warm, moist southerlies will dump snow over the southern Rockies during Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations will be around 15-30cm+, so a fairly decent dump indeed, although not as light and fluffy as we’re used to.
Meanwhile, a sneaky low will tip-toe down the west coast, wrapping itself in that same icy airmass from the Arctic. High quality snow will spread down the Cascades and into the Sierras during Friday. Heavy snowfalls will shift from the Cascades to the Sierras during Saturday as the low continues south, and will continue through Sunday.
Monday – next Thursday
As skies clear up in most other places during Monday, it’ll continue to dump in the Sierras. The eastern ranges of the Colorado will however, see some more snow late Monday.
The sneaky low will snoop farther inland from Tuesday onwards. Snow will become less widespread and button off in the Sierras, although not clear completely, while spreading inland to the Rockies south of Southern Idaho-Montana with some moderate-heavy falls expected.
ECMWF model 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
That’s all from me for North America this season. I won’t be putting my feet up for long however, because the Southern Hemisphere is starting to chill off, and you know what that means!
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Who is The Grasshopper ?
The Grasshopper. Some say he hatched one summer on a Himalayan plateau. As cold Autumn winds set in, he stumbled upon a scrap of goretex shed by some unfortunate climber and turned it into the smallest snowsuit ever. Then he strapped himself into a nearby leaf and carved his way down the mountains, hitching a ride with some hikers back to civilisation.
Now Mountainwatch’s resident meteorology sensei, this season we can expect a lot from the little critter. His beloved monthly outlooks across Australia and New Zealand over the southern hemisphere winter are being replaced with outlooks for both Japan and North America over November and December leading into the northern hemisphere winter. From there, the little critter will go into overdrive producing weekly forecasts for Japan and North America from December through to March. No doubt he’ll be run off his feet, so it’s a good thing he has six.
