The Grasshopper – The Latest Snow Forecast
Australian Forecast Sunday 1 August – Wild Weather Today as Snow Brews for Next Week
Valid Sunday August 1 – Tuesday August 3
Yesterday held out around resorts for a what was a mostly nice day before the weather arrived last night. We have seen a little bit of snow and rain overnight depending on where you are, Buller is reporting 10cm overnight and Mount Baw Baw 15cms. It is looking like this will continue this morning before clearing up in the afternoon around Victoria and maybe a little later for NSW as the front moves over there last. Expect temps to drop through the day and we should see a cold night allowing some snow making around resorts. Strong winds are also expected so take care out there and we may see some wind hold early but it shouldn’t be too bad as the winds ease a little through the day. Looking ahead there is snow in the works for Tuesday which will carry through to Wednesday. But for today expect a wild one and enjoy the fresh snow if you’re in Buller or Baw Baw
Sunday August 1
Cloudy with a very high chance of precipitation in Victoria and high in NSW. The freezing level is sitting at 1700m early in Victoria and should lower a bit through the day but snow will definitely favour higher elevations. In NSW the freezing level set to drop to around 1400m late this afternoon.
Monday August 2
A partly cloudy day around Victoria and NSW with snow expected to develop later on and continue overnight with totals around 5-10cm. Freezing levels drop to around 1500 in NSW later in the day and 1400m in Victoria.
Tuesday August 3
Very high chance of snow around resorts with the freezing level around 1200m early lowering to 900m most places in the evening. Totals right now looking like 10-25cm.
As I mentioned earlier there is something brewing for Tuesday. Expect some precipitation to start late Monday but best falls through Tuesday and a little carrying through to Wednesday. This is a result of the low pressure system seen in today’s synoptic that’s currently over southern WA. Low pressure will move south a little bit as a front develops and moves over the Alps. Right now it is looking like 5-10cm on Monday night with 10-25cm Tuesday. It could be a really nice couple of days in the Alps as freezing levels look to be cooperative. I’ll keep you updated on how its tracking and in the meantime, it should be a wild one out there today, enjoy.
New Zealand Forecast Sunday August 1 – Nice Sunday With Snow on the Way
Valid Sunday August 1 – Tuesday August 3
It has been quite warm in parts around the country lately with some isolated showers and not really much storm activity going on. Small isolated showers are expected early around the Southern Lakes with Canterbury and the North Island staying mostly dry. We may see some small showers in Canterbury later but nothing too significant. Looking to next week there is a front approaching that is expected to arrive later on Monday hitting the Southern Lakes first then moving up into Canterbury. Snow totals will depend on freezing levels with many resorts forecasted to sit at around freezing. With a bit of luck it stays cold enough and there is the possibility for 5-15cm as the front passes through. For today enjoy a partly cloudy day around Canterbury, fine day in Ruapehu with mild winds. If you’re in the Southern Lakes expect small amounts of precipitation early, clearing through the day.
Sunday August 1
Ruapehu: Mild southerlies with an otherwise fine day. Maybe some clouds through the morning and later towards the evening.
South Island: Low winds with some showers early on for the Southern Lakes. Maybe a little bit more snow overnight before it clears up later in the day. For Canterbury some cloud early clearing up through the day, moderate westerly winds persisting.
Monday 2 August
Ruapehu: Some showers on the way most likely in the afternoon, falling as snow on the peaks and shouldn’t be substantial totals. Freezing level around 2100m. Winds low westerly turning northwesterly.
South Island: Small amounts of precipitation with snow falling up high early. Snow increasing later in the day, the freezing level around 1600m expected to drop overnight as snow becomes heavier. 5-15cm possible through the night into Tuesday morning over the Southern Lakes and Canterbury.
Tuesday 3 August
Ruapehu: Snow in the early hours before some more later in the afternoon heading into the evening. Precipitation on and off through the day may be mixed in with some rain. Nice totals possible around 5-20cm. Winds northerly initially turning to southwesterly and strengthening over the evening.
South Island: The front passes through the Southern Lakes with a bit more left from Monday. Expect a little more in Canterbury with good snow early. Totals 4-12cm more likely in Canterbury.
It should be a mostly nice day around the ski fields today with the wind not too strong and the sun making an appearance in many resorts. As far as snow, we will have to wait until later on Monday for the South Island and Tuesday up north. It is looking like mainly snow at this stage with decent amounts possible. Canterbury could receive over 20cm along with snow and smaller totals further south. I’ll keep you updated on where to expect the best falls over the coming days.
Get out and enjoy some nice weather today.
Weekly Japanese Forecast – A mix of sunshine and light snow, but an intense low on Tuesday brings heavy rain & snow.
Valid Thursday 25th February – Thursday 4th March
The rollercoaster ride of the last couple of weeks is starting to get bumpier as we roll into spring. Weather systems are becoming more mobile, providing big climbs and steep drop-offs in temperature and weather.
This week in particular we are seeing a greater influence of high-pressure systems, three to be precise, providing plenty of sunshine and mostly light snowfall. We’re lucky this weekend as we narrowly avoid the ravages of a Pacific low, which should stay well offshore.
Tuesday and early Wednesday, however, will provide the most entertainment in terms of weather this week. An intense low will bring a short and sharp downpour of both rain and snow. Snow totals could be quite large on Hokkaido, possibly 30-50cm, while Honshu may cop a tidy 15-25cm.
ECMWF 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
A high passes over Honshu today, breaking up cloud cover to let some sunshine in. A chilly W-NW wind over Hokkaido will see light snowfalls there, mostly this morning and evening.
On Friday, a cold front sweeping south will bring a period of light snowfall to northern Honshu before dawn, then flurries to central Honshu during the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, cold W-NW winds will continue to push light snow showers over Hokkaido.
Count your lucky stars, because this weekend we narrowly avoid a Pacific low, which earlier model runs had running amok over Honshu. Instead, the low stays well offshore, and a cold northerly flow brings light snowfall to much of the country during the first half of Saturday.
Skies will then clear during the latter half of Saturday before another high passes over Honshu during Sunday, bringing beautiful, clear sunny skies. However, temperatures will start to rise, while cloud and warm SW winds build over Hokkaido later in the day.
Temperatures will really soar during Monday as warm S-SW winds get going on the backside of the high. Cloud will start to increase over the country during the second half of the day and we may see a mix of rain+snow cropping up over Hokkaido later.
Tuesday will be rather ugly, as an intense low quickly crosses the Sea of Japan to passes over northern Honshu. Those warm southerly winds will blow a gale as the low approaches, with a period of heavy rainfall (falling as a mix of rain+snow on Hokkaido) just before cold northerlies hit sometime during the second half of the day, dumping a heavy load of snow.
The snowfall will be short-lived, however, and skies will part yet again for more sunshine during the latter half of Wednesday and next Thursday as another high passes over the country.
Next weekend may hold more light snowfalls with the passage of a weak cold front. Then models pick another intense, rapidly moving storm to affect the country next Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a downpour of rain followed by a dump of snow, all in quick succession.
Although snowfalls rapidly taper off during spring, the season as whole looks to be less conducive for snowfall than usual, so we can expect average or below snowfall for this time of year.
That’s all from me guys and gals, this the last forecast for the Japanese season. It has been a great season in terms of snowfall and snow quality, above average for sure, despite travel restrictions and all. Hopefully we’ll all be back on Japan’s slopes next season. The southern hemisphere’s snow season is a little over three months away; we’ll be amongst it before you know it! Until then, enjoy spring or autumn wherever you are. Ja ne!
Weekly North America Forecast – Deep blower pow for most, but patient Sierras to reap the biggest reward
Valid Thursday 12th March to Thursday 19th March
This is it folks, my last forecast for the North American season. And what a way to sign off from an exceptional season; there is so much snow falling this week it was a real challenge putting it into words.
Significant low pressure stewing over the states will see an icy airmass descend southwards, providing deep blower powder for most. The big news, however, is the 60-120cm+ that is expected to fall in the Sierras. They say that a quiet winter will bring a busy spring, and that certainly looks to be the case this season.
Snow accumulations of 25-50cm+ can be found throughout the Rockies and Cascades, while the Coast Mountains of Canada will take a well-deserved breather with just a sprinkling of a few centimetres.
Thursday – Sunday
Low pressure boils up over states during the next few days. This drags a cold arctic airmass from the icy interior down over Canada, and into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Super fluffy, feather-like snow will follow suit.
Skies will mostly clear over these northern areas this weekend, giving you that amazing crispy winter feeling with powder to shred, but the snow will keep coming down over southern Idaho, Montana and Wyoming during Sunday and into Monday as this area marks the boundary between the icy easterly airstream, and warm moist southerlies to the south.
Sucked in by the low pressure, these warm, moist southerlies will dump snow over the southern Rockies during Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations will be around 15-30cm+, so a fairly decent dump indeed, although not as light and fluffy as we’re used to.
Meanwhile, a sneaky low will tip-toe down the west coast, wrapping itself in that same icy airmass from the Arctic. High quality snow will spread down the Cascades and into the Sierras during Friday. Heavy snowfalls will shift from the Cascades to the Sierras during Saturday as the low continues south, and will continue through Sunday.
Monday – next Thursday
As skies clear up in most other places during Monday, it’ll continue to dump in the Sierras. The eastern ranges of the Colorado will however, see some more snow late Monday.
The sneaky low will snoop farther inland from Tuesday onwards. Snow will become less widespread and button off in the Sierras, although not clear completely, while spreading inland to the Rockies south of Southern Idaho-Montana with some moderate-heavy falls expected.
ECMWF model 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
That’s all from me for North America this season. I won’t be putting my feet up for long however, because the Southern Hemisphere is starting to chill off, and you know what that means!
it looks like a great weekend is in store for resorts all around the country....
July 23, 2021
totals of around 30-70cm from the next four/five days with more snow on the way ...
July 23, 2021
around 5-20cm again are possible with especially heavy falls possible overnight...
July 16, 2021
there is some snow expected in the middle of the week....
July 9, 2021
emphasising that winters are extremely chaotic and only take a couple of signifi...
July 7, 2021
I’d put a conservative number as 20cm over the Tuesday/Wednesday period...
July 2, 2021
the temperatures which are set to see very low freezing levels...
July 2, 2021
Widespread snow forecasted next week ...
June 30, 2021
The weekend is presenting with a better chance of higher totals, but we are stil...
June 30, 2021
three-day totals in the Southern Alps should range from 5-25cm with The Remarkab...
June 28, 2021
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Who is The Grasshopper ?
The Grasshopper. Some say he hatched one summer on a Himalayan plateau. As cold Autumn winds set in, he stumbled upon a scrap of goretex shed by some unfortunate climber and turned it into the smallest snowsuit ever. Then he strapped himself into a nearby leaf and carved his way down the mountains, hitching a ride with some hikers back to civilisation.
Now Mountainwatch’s resident meteorology sensei, this season we can expect a lot from the little critter. His beloved monthly outlooks across Australia and New Zealand over the southern hemisphere winter are being replaced with outlooks for both Japan and North America over November and December leading into the northern hemisphere winter. From there, the little critter will go into overdrive producing weekly forecasts for Japan and North America from December through to March. No doubt he’ll be run off his feet, so it’s a good thing he has six.