The Grasshopper – The Latest Snow Forecast
DETAILED FORECAST
Australian Forecast Friday October 1 – Late Season Wet Weather
Valid Friday October 1 – Sunday October 3
It’s been a wet end to the working week all over the east coast thanks to a low-pressure system that has seen humid conditions and widespread thunderstorms. Around the Alps the story is the same, with some solid rain unfortunately accelerating the end of season. Some precipitation is expected all through the weekend as this system remains overt the southeast and eventually moves off into the Tasman, but the rain shouldn’t fall as heavy as it has over the past few days. Over the beginning of next week more precipitation will be caused by an approaching low currently off the coast of Western Australia, with chance of snow instead of rain (more on that down below).
This is my last forecast for the season as it winds up in the Southern Hemisphere. Thanks for following along and, hopefully, if you haven’t had the chance for some local turns the borders will open up in time for some Northern Hemisphere action very soon.
Friday October 1
High to very high chance of showers about the Alps with the chance of a thunderstorm early for both Victoria and NSW. Moderate northerlies warming the temp through the day.
Saturday October 2
In NSW another very high chance of showers with thunderstorms possible throughout the middle of the day and light winds. Similar story in Victoria with a cloudy day and showers expected. Chances of a thunderstorm through the middle of the day and afternoon.
Sunday October 3
More showers in NSW with moderate northwesterlies increasing in strength through the evening. Another cloudy day with showers also in Victoria with moderate northwesterlies in the morning increasing through evening.
Extended Forecast
As the season winds to a close we end on a sour note with consistent rainfall expected through this weekend. As this current low-pressure system moves off into the Tasman another one arrives from the west and we may see some good amounts snow early next week to possibly keep the backcountry stoke alive at high elevations, with possible best case accumulations of 25+cm. This snow has the best chance of falling over Monday night into Tuesday with high winds expected to accompany it through the start of the week and continue right through the week.
With the Snowy Mountain region back in lockdown, it’s just the Victorian resorts that will close for the season on the usual closing day on Sunday. This will be the last forecast for the tumultuous 2021 Australian season. Thanks for sticking with me and here’s to a less interrupted 2022 and the possibility of some overseas travel very soon and I will be back with northern hemisphere forecasts in December. Until then, take care.
Grasshopper
New Zealand Forecast Friday October 1 – Springtime Sun
Valid Friday October 1 – Sunday October 3
Some sun has come out around New Zealand this week with fronts clearing to the northeast and high pressure around the north right now and this should continue all around the mountains through the weekend. Nice and settled conditions should see some good late season spring skiing on offer.
This will be my last forecast for the New Zealand season, thanks for coming along for the ride and hopefully there are still a few more turns to be had before the warm temperatures truly set in.
Friday October 1
Ruapehu: Partly cloudy with sunny breaks at times. Light to moderate westerlies throughout.
South Island: Fine about the Southern Lakes with persistent westerly winds through the day, initially moderate and easing late in the evening. For Canterbury a fine Friday with moderate northwesterlies.
Saturday October 2
Ruapehu: Some cloud around possibly clearing into the afternoon. More westerlies but not too strong.
South Island: Partly cloudy around the Southern Lakes with the chance of flurries in the afternoon. Around Canterbury another fine day with west/northwesterly winds, a little stronger than Friday.
Sunday October 3
Ruapehu: Cloud early clearing for some sunshine. A reasonably warm day with some wind, but not too strong.
South Island: Cloudy around the Southern Lakes with northwestlery winds, stronger early and weakening through the day. For Canterbury a fine Sunday with moderate westerlies.
Extended Forecast
There is some nice weather to enjoy over this weekend all around the country with the spring sun coming out around the mountains. Moving through the weekend the system currently over southeastern Australia will move closer and arrive on Monday bringing widespread precipitation. At this stage it is not looking like it will be cold enough for it to snow apart from possibility at higher elevations.
This is my last forecast for the 2021 New Zealand season. I hope you have enjoyed an up and down winter and hopefully next year is less interrupted and overseas travel might soon be on the horizon. Take care.
Grasshopper
Weekly Japanese Forecast – A mix of sunshine and light snow, but an intense low on Tuesday brings heavy rain & snow.
Valid Thursday 25th February – Thursday 4th March
The rollercoaster ride of the last couple of weeks is starting to get bumpier as we roll into spring. Weather systems are becoming more mobile, providing big climbs and steep drop-offs in temperature and weather.
This week in particular we are seeing a greater influence of high-pressure systems, three to be precise, providing plenty of sunshine and mostly light snowfall. We’re lucky this weekend as we narrowly avoid the ravages of a Pacific low, which should stay well offshore.
Tuesday and early Wednesday, however, will provide the most entertainment in terms of weather this week. An intense low will bring a short and sharp downpour of both rain and snow. Snow totals could be quite large on Hokkaido, possibly 30-50cm, while Honshu may cop a tidy 15-25cm.
ECMWF 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
Forecast
A high passes over Honshu today, breaking up cloud cover to let some sunshine in. A chilly W-NW wind over Hokkaido will see light snowfalls there, mostly this morning and evening.
On Friday, a cold front sweeping south will bring a period of light snowfall to northern Honshu before dawn, then flurries to central Honshu during the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, cold W-NW winds will continue to push light snow showers over Hokkaido.
Count your lucky stars, because this weekend we narrowly avoid a Pacific low, which earlier model runs had running amok over Honshu. Instead, the low stays well offshore, and a cold northerly flow brings light snowfall to much of the country during the first half of Saturday.
Skies will then clear during the latter half of Saturday before another high passes over Honshu during Sunday, bringing beautiful, clear sunny skies. However, temperatures will start to rise, while cloud and warm SW winds build over Hokkaido later in the day.
Temperatures will really soar during Monday as warm S-SW winds get going on the backside of the high. Cloud will start to increase over the country during the second half of the day and we may see a mix of rain+snow cropping up over Hokkaido later.
Tuesday will be rather ugly, as an intense low quickly crosses the Sea of Japan to passes over northern Honshu. Those warm southerly winds will blow a gale as the low approaches, with a period of heavy rainfall (falling as a mix of rain+snow on Hokkaido) just before cold northerlies hit sometime during the second half of the day, dumping a heavy load of snow.
The snowfall will be short-lived, however, and skies will part yet again for more sunshine during the latter half of Wednesday and next Thursday as another high passes over the country.
Extended Outlook
Next weekend may hold more light snowfalls with the passage of a weak cold front. Then models pick another intense, rapidly moving storm to affect the country next Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a downpour of rain followed by a dump of snow, all in quick succession.
Although snowfalls rapidly taper off during spring, the season as whole looks to be less conducive for snowfall than usual, so we can expect average or below snowfall for this time of year.
That’s all from me guys and gals, this the last forecast for the Japanese season. It has been a great season in terms of snowfall and snow quality, above average for sure, despite travel restrictions and all. Hopefully we’ll all be back on Japan’s slopes next season. The southern hemisphere’s snow season is a little over three months away; we’ll be amongst it before you know it! Until then, enjoy spring or autumn wherever you are. Ja ne!
The Grasshopper
Weekly North America Forecast – Deep blower pow for most, but patient Sierras to reap the biggest reward
Valid Thursday 12th March to Thursday 19th March
This is it folks, my last forecast for the North American season. And what a way to sign off from an exceptional season; there is so much snow falling this week it was a real challenge putting it into words.
Significant low pressure stewing over the states will see an icy airmass descend southwards, providing deep blower powder for most. The big news, however, is the 60-120cm+ that is expected to fall in the Sierras. They say that a quiet winter will bring a busy spring, and that certainly looks to be the case this season.
Snow accumulations of 25-50cm+ can be found throughout the Rockies and Cascades, while the Coast Mountains of Canada will take a well-deserved breather with just a sprinkling of a few centimetres.
Thursday – Sunday
Low pressure boils up over states during the next few days. This drags a cold arctic airmass from the icy interior down over Canada, and into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Super fluffy, feather-like snow will follow suit.
Skies will mostly clear over these northern areas this weekend, giving you that amazing crispy winter feeling with powder to shred, but the snow will keep coming down over southern Idaho, Montana and Wyoming during Sunday and into Monday as this area marks the boundary between the icy easterly airstream, and warm moist southerlies to the south.
Sucked in by the low pressure, these warm, moist southerlies will dump snow over the southern Rockies during Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations will be around 15-30cm+, so a fairly decent dump indeed, although not as light and fluffy as we’re used to.
Meanwhile, a sneaky low will tip-toe down the west coast, wrapping itself in that same icy airmass from the Arctic. High quality snow will spread down the Cascades and into the Sierras during Friday. Heavy snowfalls will shift from the Cascades to the Sierras during Saturday as the low continues south, and will continue through Sunday.
Monday – next Thursday
As skies clear up in most other places during Monday, it’ll continue to dump in the Sierras. The eastern ranges of the Colorado will however, see some more snow late Monday.
The sneaky low will snoop farther inland from Tuesday onwards. Snow will become less widespread and button off in the Sierras, although not clear completely, while spreading inland to the Rockies south of Southern Idaho-Montana with some moderate-heavy falls expected.
ECMWF model 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
That’s all from me for North America this season. I won’t be putting my feet up for long however, because the Southern Hemisphere is starting to chill off, and you know what that means!
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Who is The Grasshopper ?
The Grasshopper. Some say he hatched one summer on a Himalayan plateau. As cold Autumn winds set in, he stumbled upon a scrap of goretex shed by some unfortunate climber and turned it into the smallest snowsuit ever. Then he strapped himself into a nearby leaf and carved his way down the mountains, hitching a ride with some hikers back to civilisation.
Now Mountainwatch’s resident meteorology sensei, this season we can expect a lot from the little critter. His beloved monthly outlooks across Australia and New Zealand over the southern hemisphere winter are being replaced with outlooks for both Japan and North America over November and December leading into the northern hemisphere winter. From there, the little critter will go into overdrive producing weekly forecasts for Japan and North America from December through to March. No doubt he’ll be run off his feet, so it’s a good thing he has six.
