The Grasshopper – The Latest Snow Forecast
Australian Forecast Monday October 1st – Fine and windy, then rain on Monday
Valid Thursday 1st October – Monday 5th October
High pressure sliding by to the north will bring sunny skies later today through into Sunday, but NW winds will gradually warm and strengthen and blow a gale this weekend, which will be one more nail in the coffin for our snowpack
Closing day at Perisher on Monday is unfortunately going to be a wet one, as a slow moving front works it’s way across the Aussie Alps. However, cold air and snow is likely during the following days.
This is my last forecast of the season guys. It’s been a bumpy ride, but we’ve had some fun along the way. I’m going to hit the backcountry while there’s snow here, and then head up north to colder climes once it gets too hot here for my little grasshopper feet.
Any remaining showers or drizzle should gradually clear to a sunny afternoon. Brisk westerly winds.
Not a cloud in sight, but W-NW winds will be quite strong.
Another sunny day, with strong NW winds again, reaching gale up top.
Mostly fine, but cloud will build over Victorian resorts during the afternoon with rain developing there after dark. Strong, warm NW winds will be blowing a gale in exposed areas.
Rain in Victoria spreading to NSW. Heavy falls possible, and gale NW winds will gradually abate.
Next week, cold air pushing up from the south should bring snow to the Aussie Alps Tuesday night through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday. Accumulations look to be in the 5-15cm range, but there is the potential for more on the southern slopes of Victoria.
Looking further ahead, there is the potential for snow around the 12th-13th of October.
That’s all from me guys, enjoy what we have left. I’ll get amongst the northern hemisphere once it starts dumping snow up there, so keep an eye out for that in a couple of months time.
New Zealand forecast Thursday 1st October – Todays the day! Strong, warm NW winds to follow!!!
Valid Thursday 1st October – Monday 5th October
We have a clear day in the South Island, revealing mountains laden with fresh snow after the recent icy blast out of Antarctica dropped up to 50cm across kiwi ski fields. It was perhaps the biggest dump the Southern Lakes has seen this whole season. If you aren’t already up the mountain, then drop everything and run, because conditions won’t remain this good for long.
Although a couple of weak fronts NW winds will bring a scattering of rain late Friday and early Saturday, and again late Saturday, the main issue will be warm NW winds. These will pick up during Friday and reach severe gale at times over the weekend and Monday and no doubt affect lift operations. This will also chew through a sizeable chunk of this gorgeous look snowpack.
This is my last forecast of the season guys. I’m going to make the most of what’s left, and then head up north to colder climes once it gets too hot here for my little grasshopper feet.
Note: The detailed forecast below is for ski fields in Canterbury and the Southern Lakes.
A fine start to the day, then high cloud will increase as NW winds kick in.
Some mid-high cloud overhead, then scattered rain developing over the Southern Lakes from late afternoon. NW winds strengthening, rising to gale in exposed areas.
Plenty of mid-high cloud again, with scattered rain over Canterbury ski fields during the first half of the morning. Scattered rain over southern Lakes fields from evening. Strong NW winds will be blowing a gale-severe gale in exposed areas.
Fine with mid-high cloud, with severe gale W-NW winds!
Fine with mid-high cloud again. NW winds still be strong, with gales exposed areas rising to severe gale.
Fortunately, all those warm NW winds will come to and end next week with a cold front passing over the South Island during Tuesday, giving ski fields a nice top-up in the process. We may see a few more light snow showers during Wednesday and/or Thursday before a bout of happy high pressure leads us into a warm, wet weekend – a weekend that will be the last for many of NZ ski fields this season.
That’s all from me today, guys. I’ll get amongst the northern hemisphere once it starts dumping snow up there, so keep an eye out for that in a couple of months time.
Weekly Japanese Forecast – A mix of sunshine and light snow, but an intense low on Tuesday brings heavy rain & snow.
Valid Thursday 25th February – Thursday 4th March
The rollercoaster ride of the last couple of weeks is starting to get bumpier as we roll into spring. Weather systems are becoming more mobile, providing big climbs and steep drop-offs in temperature and weather.
This week in particular we are seeing a greater influence of high-pressure systems, three to be precise, providing plenty of sunshine and mostly light snowfall. We’re lucky this weekend as we narrowly avoid the ravages of a Pacific low, which should stay well offshore.
Tuesday and early Wednesday, however, will provide the most entertainment in terms of weather this week. An intense low will bring a short and sharp downpour of both rain and snow. Snow totals could be quite large on Hokkaido, possibly 30-50cm, while Honshu may cop a tidy 15-25cm.
ECMWF 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
A high passes over Honshu today, breaking up cloud cover to let some sunshine in. A chilly W-NW wind over Hokkaido will see light snowfalls there, mostly this morning and evening.
On Friday, a cold front sweeping south will bring a period of light snowfall to northern Honshu before dawn, then flurries to central Honshu during the morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, cold W-NW winds will continue to push light snow showers over Hokkaido.
Count your lucky stars, because this weekend we narrowly avoid a Pacific low, which earlier model runs had running amok over Honshu. Instead, the low stays well offshore, and a cold northerly flow brings light snowfall to much of the country during the first half of Saturday.
Skies will then clear during the latter half of Saturday before another high passes over Honshu during Sunday, bringing beautiful, clear sunny skies. However, temperatures will start to rise, while cloud and warm SW winds build over Hokkaido later in the day.
Temperatures will really soar during Monday as warm S-SW winds get going on the backside of the high. Cloud will start to increase over the country during the second half of the day and we may see a mix of rain+snow cropping up over Hokkaido later.
Tuesday will be rather ugly, as an intense low quickly crosses the Sea of Japan to passes over northern Honshu. Those warm southerly winds will blow a gale as the low approaches, with a period of heavy rainfall (falling as a mix of rain+snow on Hokkaido) just before cold northerlies hit sometime during the second half of the day, dumping a heavy load of snow.
The snowfall will be short-lived, however, and skies will part yet again for more sunshine during the latter half of Wednesday and next Thursday as another high passes over the country.
Next weekend may hold more light snowfalls with the passage of a weak cold front. Then models pick another intense, rapidly moving storm to affect the country next Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a downpour of rain followed by a dump of snow, all in quick succession.
Although snowfalls rapidly taper off during spring, the season as whole looks to be less conducive for snowfall than usual, so we can expect average or below snowfall for this time of year.
That’s all from me guys and gals, this the last forecast for the Japanese season. It has been a great season in terms of snowfall and snow quality, above average for sure, despite travel restrictions and all. Hopefully we’ll all be back on Japan’s slopes next season. The southern hemisphere’s snow season is a little over three months away; we’ll be amongst it before you know it! Until then, enjoy spring or autumn wherever you are. Ja ne!
Weekly North America Forecast – Deep blower pow for most, but patient Sierras to reap the biggest reward
Valid Thursday 12th March to Thursday 19th March
This is it folks, my last forecast for the North American season. And what a way to sign off from an exceptional season; there is so much snow falling this week it was a real challenge putting it into words.
Significant low pressure stewing over the states will see an icy airmass descend southwards, providing deep blower powder for most. The big news, however, is the 60-120cm+ that is expected to fall in the Sierras. They say that a quiet winter will bring a busy spring, and that certainly looks to be the case this season.
Snow accumulations of 25-50cm+ can be found throughout the Rockies and Cascades, while the Coast Mountains of Canada will take a well-deserved breather with just a sprinkling of a few centimetres.
Thursday – Sunday
Low pressure boils up over states during the next few days. This drags a cold arctic airmass from the icy interior down over Canada, and into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Super fluffy, feather-like snow will follow suit.
Skies will mostly clear over these northern areas this weekend, giving you that amazing crispy winter feeling with powder to shred, but the snow will keep coming down over southern Idaho, Montana and Wyoming during Sunday and into Monday as this area marks the boundary between the icy easterly airstream, and warm moist southerlies to the south.
Sucked in by the low pressure, these warm, moist southerlies will dump snow over the southern Rockies during Friday night into Saturday. Snow accumulations will be around 15-30cm+, so a fairly decent dump indeed, although not as light and fluffy as we’re used to.
Meanwhile, a sneaky low will tip-toe down the west coast, wrapping itself in that same icy airmass from the Arctic. High quality snow will spread down the Cascades and into the Sierras during Friday. Heavy snowfalls will shift from the Cascades to the Sierras during Saturday as the low continues south, and will continue through Sunday.
Monday – next Thursday
As skies clear up in most other places during Monday, it’ll continue to dump in the Sierras. The eastern ranges of the Colorado will however, see some more snow late Monday.
The sneaky low will snoop farther inland from Tuesday onwards. Snow will become less widespread and button off in the Sierras, although not clear completely, while spreading inland to the Rockies south of Southern Idaho-Montana with some moderate-heavy falls expected.
ECMWF model 10-day snow accumulations. Source: windy.com
That’s all from me for North America this season. I won’t be putting my feet up for long however, because the Southern Hemisphere is starting to chill off, and you know what that means!
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Who is The Grasshopper ?
The Grasshopper. Some say he hatched one summer on a Himalayan plateau. As cold Autumn winds set in, he stumbled upon a scrap of goretex shed by some unfortunate climber and turned it into the smallest snowsuit ever. Then he strapped himself into a nearby leaf and carved his way down the mountains, hitching a ride with some hikers back to civilisation.
Now Mountainwatch’s resident meteorology sensei, this season we can expect a lot from the little critter. His beloved monthly outlooks across Australia and New Zealand over the southern hemisphere winter are being replaced with outlooks for both Japan and North America over November and December leading into the northern hemisphere winter. From there, the little critter will go into overdrive producing weekly forecasts for Japan and North America from December through to March. No doubt he’ll be run off his feet, so it’s a good thing he has six.