New Zealand Forecast – Strong, Cold Southerlies Bring More Freshies Before a Bigger Storm Cycle Looms
Published early Monday, 17th August 2026
The Kiwi season continues to go from strength to strength as another wintry southerly blasted up the country over the weekend, delivering another round of fresh powder. The Southern Lakes picked up a wee 2-4cm dusting on Saturday, while Canterbury had already scored around 5-15cm by Sunday morning, with snow continuing through the day and final totals likely to reach 15-30+cm. Snow also kicked off on Mt Ruapehu on Sunday, and we’re expecting a decent haul to show up in Monday morning’s reports.
Bitterly cold winds persist through Monday and Tuesday, as repeated southerly surges bring more fresh snow, with the best top-ups in northern Canterbury and on Mt Ruapehu, where blizzard conditions and lift disruptions are likely.
Conditions gradually improve from Wednesday as high pressure pushes in for a mint, settled day on Thursday. Northwesterlies then pick up on Friday as the next storm approaches, making landfall over the lower South Island Friday night before continuing northwards over the weekend, bringing just rain and high-level snow. However, this opens the door to a potentially substantial powder reload over the weekend and early next week during another prolonged strong, cold west-to-southwest flow.
Monday 17th August
South Island ski fields will start out fine with cold south-to-southwest winds. However, a weak front from the south brushes past the Southern Lakes late morning, then Canterbury late afternoon, bringing stronger winds, cloud, and some snow flurries, most of which will fall in the evening.
Strong, freezing southerlies on Mt Ruapehu may affect lift ops again and will keep skies mostly cloudy, with occasional snow flurries that will fall to super low levels and settle on Central Plateau roads.
Tuesday 18th August
An even stronger surge from the south will see south-to-southwest winds over the South Island reach gale force for a time, especially in Canterbury, which will likely affect lift ops again.
The Southern Lakes will see a fair bit of cloud, particularly in the south where there could be a few snow flurries.
Canterbury will have another sunny morning, but the weather will deteriorate in the afternoon as cloud and snow showers push in over central and northern parts, from Mt Hutt northwards. The snow clears overnight, leaving a wee 1-8cm top-up, with the highest totals in the north.
Mt Ruapehu will have blizzard conditions as strong, cold southerlies, reaching gale-force in exposed areas, keep snow showers coming in throughout the day. Lift ops will likely be significantly hampered, but ski fields could score totals between 10 and 20cm.
Wednesday 19th August
Clouds gradually clear the South Island from the south as chilly southerly winds turn southwest. This will happen during the morning for the Southern Lakes and Mackenzie Country, then Central Canterbury in the afternoon, and North Canterbury from late afternoon.
Skies remain cloudy over Mt Ruapehu, and there may be a few extra snow flurries as cold, gale-force southerlies gradually abate.
Thursday 20th August
A fine day for South Island ski fields above extensive areas of low cloud filling the valleys and basins, while southwest winds ease and turn northwest.
Mt Ruapehu will have mostly cloudy skies as cold southerly winds ease and turn southwest.
Friday 21st August
Northwesterlies strengthen over the South Island as a front approaches from the west, with increasing high cloud, particularly over the Southern Lakes, which will start to see showers of rain and snow spilling over from the Main Divide at night as the front moves over the region.
Westerly winds on Mt Ruapehu will push in a fair amount of cloud on to the low and mid slopes, but the upper slopes should be mostly clear.
Extended Forecast
The front moving over the lower South Island on Friday will continue northward over the upper South Island on Saturday, the 22nd of August, and the North Island on Sunday, the 23rd, bringing a mix of rain and high-level snow.
Close behind the front, a strong, cold west-to-southwest flow will move in, bringing bouts of snowfall through until around Wednesday the 26th, which could equate to a substantial load of powder, especially for the Southern Lakes and Mt Ruapehu. However, it’ll be a rough ride, and winds will likely be a major issue, causing all sorts of headaches for the ops crews.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out NZ forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great couple of days, and I’ll see you back here on Wednesday.
Grasshopper
