Aussie August Snow Outlook – Snow Expected
Will August bring us the snow we’re all hoping for? Image:: Jyothi Jaffray @ Hotham
Snow Forecast | Aaron Cook – Alpine Meteorologist
As a La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean strengthens, a betting man would probably be happy to put his money on the Australian Alps receiving average to above average rainfall during August. But if that same punter wanted a wager on whether most of that rainfall would fall as snow, he might be better off flipping a coin than trying to look for clues in what the climate is doing.
The confounding issue is that even though warmer than normal average maximum temperatures are expected across the Alps during August, in the end it is not the average temperatures that matter. What does matter is the temperature when the rain is falling, and at the moment it is still a complete mystery whether it will be cold enough for snow.
Consider the statistics for winter so far. Rainfall has been a little bit below average across the Alps but there was still enough for some decent snow if it had been cold enough. Then if you check out the temperature statistics you find it has actually been a little bit colder than average.
An early morning dusting at Buller. Image:: Joey Corcoran
The problem is that the cold hasn’t coincided with the rain and there doesn’t seem to be any better explanation for this than pure “bad luck”. If one or two of the cold fronts that have passed over during June and July had been just a couple of degrees cooler, then the season would be looking a lot better.
But as it stands, in the words of the marketing teams at both Thredbo and Perisher, it is snowmaking that has been the saviour this winter. The resorts have been able to take advantage of the colder than average temperatures to create record amounts of man-made snow to make up for the environment’s refusal to play ball (or should that be snowball?) and produce natural snow.
It’s a massive vindication for the investment that the resorts have made in snowmaking equipment. Nature has shown that cooler than average temperatures don’t necessarily mean more snow in any given year. What the resorts have shown is that their investment is often going to provide insurance against “bad luck”, allowing them to open many more runs than would otherwise have been possible.
So what’s my forecast for snow during August? I’m going to predict that rainfall will be between 60 and 100 millimetres for the resorts during August; and because there are two sides to every coin I’m going to guess that half of that will be snow, leading to snowfall of between 30 and 50 centimetres for the month.
Think I’ve got it all wrong? Send an email to aaron@weathersense.com.au and let me know your theory.
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