The Grasshopper – The Latest Snow Forecast
DETAILED FORECAST
Australian Forecast – Refresh & Repair from Cold Front Late Saturday
Published early Friday, 26th July 2024
It was a soggy ol’ day yesterday, but it did end up snowing above 1800m. We’ve got a nice day lined up for your Friday slide sesh before a cold front arrives late Saturday, bringing a top-up of high-quality powder to low levels.
The front will go on to spin up into a slow-moving low-pressure system in the Tasman Sea, where it’ll direct cold winds from the south over the Aussie Alps for several more days, with a few more snow showers turning up on Sunday and Monday.
Snowfall accumulations during this forecast period will be around the 5-15cm mark, and additional snowmaking will refresh and repair the snowpack nicely.
Friday 26th July
A chilly start with a bit of cloud about, but that’ll clear up rather pronto for a mint, sunny day. Westerly winds turn NW and strengthen over Victoria.
Saturday 27th July
Gusty NW winds over Victoria will see patchy drizzle developing there in the morning, falling as light snow above about 1600m. A cold front arrives late in the day, bringing a period of heavier snowfall to low levels and a cold SW change from late afternoon into the evening.
NSW resorts will be fine until cloud starts building in the afternoon. The snow and cold SW change will arrive in the evening and fall through the night to low levels.
Sunday 28th July
Strong, cold southwesterlies will bring more snow showers to low levels. They’ll be fairly constant for Baw Baw, but they’ll likely come and go at the other resorts.
Monday 29th July
Cloud and any remaining snow showers will clear NSW early for a nice, sunny day as strong, cold southerlies abate. However, cloud creeps eastwards over Victoria, with more snow showers turning up on Mt Baw Baw and possibly Mt Buller too.
Extended Forecast
The slow moving Tasman Low will likely see cold southerlies over the Aussie Alps turn eastwards as a ridge of high pressure builds over us. The weather will be mostly clear and cold, and the snowpack thick and fluffy after all the snow, so it’ll be the best days of the season so far according to my books.
From next weekend, the 3rd and 4th of August, the weather looks to become unsettled again with the change of some more snow.
That’s all from me today, folks. The next forecast is Monday. See you then, and have a great weekend.
Grasshopper
New Zealand Forecast – Nor’westers Next Few days, Potential Powdermonium Next Week!
Published early Friday, 26th July 2024
Northwest winds will blow over the South Island during Friday and the weekend as a front moves onto the bottom of the country. Treble Cone will receive the lion’s share of rain and high-level snow showers as they spill over the Main Divide. Some of those showers will show up elsewhere in the Southern Lake from time to time and also in Canterbury on Sunday as the front finally moves over the country, leaving clear skies behind it.
Then, on Monday, a slow-moving low in the Tasman Sea will flirt with the South Island, sending an atmospheric river of moisture down over the country while a cold airmass reaches the lower South Island. The result: heavy snowfall to low levels for the Southern Lakes and mostly heavy rain and high-level snow for Canterbury.
Well, that’s how current forecasts pick it, but all that can change in a heartbeat, as small changes in the position of these weather features could lead to massive changes in the forecast. The cold airmass is expected to reach Canterbury on Tuesday or even Wednesday for their turn of powdermonium, from which time snowfalls will start to ease over the Southern Lakes.
Friday 26th July
A mostly cloudy day for the Southern Lakes, where light showers of rain and high-level snow develop on Treble Cone in the morning. A few light showers might also show up in the afternoon at the other Southern Lakes resorts. Canterbury will just have some high cloud overhead. NW winds will be fairly strong in exposed areas.
Saturday 27th July
Another cloudy one for the Southern Lakes, where light showers of rain and high-level snow hitting Treble Cone will turn up at the other resorts from time to time. Snow levels will lower to near-base levels at night. Fine weather for Canterbury with a bit of high cloud. N-NW winds will be gusty for the Southern Lakes.
Sunday 28th July
Cloud over the Southern Lakes and snow showers on Treble Cone will gradually clear for a fine afternoon as N-NW winds turn to a lighter SW.
Strong, gusty NW winds in Canterbury will blow in some light rain showers and high-level snow to some resorts, particularly those closest to the Main Divide. That’ll clear during the latter half of the day as winds ease and turn W-SW.
Monday 29th July
Snow spreads over the South Island with heavy falls likely. It will fall to low levels in the Southern Lakes where cold winds from the E-SE will blow. But it’ll likely turn to rain about mid-lower slopes of Canterbury before lowering again overnight, as strong, gusty northerlies turn to a colder southerly.
Extended Forecast
After the big snowstorm, which lasts until Thursday the 1st or Friday the 2nd of August, the forecast is still very much up in the air. It all depends on what the slow-moving low in the Tasman decides to do – it could cross either the North Island or somewhere near the South Island, which would lead to drastically different weather outcomes. So, I’ll save more details for Monday’s forecast, as anything at this point is pure conjecture.
That’s all from me today, folks. The next forecast is Monday. See you then, and have a great weekend.
Grasshopper
Weekly Japan Forecast – Quieter after a Massive week, but 15-40cm for Honshu this Weekend
Written Thursday morning 7th of March (Japan Standard Time)
It’s been a massive week in Japan, one of the deepest of the season for many resorts on Honshu, after a couple of storm systems rolled through, bringing consistent and deep refills of powder.
Things will be a little slower over the coming 7-day period, especially on Hokkaido where sunshine will be plentiful and winds mostly light. The main event will take place this weekend, and should result in 15-40cm+ of fresh powder for Honshu, thanks to a low out east dragging in some cold air. Another low from the west will bring snow + rain during Tuesday, before another shot of powder on Wednesday.
This is my last forecast of the 2023-2024 Japanese snow season. It’s been a blast and a real pleasure to have been a part of it all. Hopefully I’ve helped you in some way or another to score the goods while also staying safe. Although I’m heading into hibernation until the southern hemisphere winter arrives, there’s still plenty more skiing to be done here in Japan. With more sunshine and warmer temps, as well as the occasional fresh shot of Japow, spring is still a great time to hit the Japanese slopes.
Thursday 7th & Friday 8th of March
Today, Thursday, an icy cold N-NW flow over Japan will ease as a high drifts over the north. Resorts will primarily see a mix of sun and cloud. However, light snowfalls tucked in close to the Sea of Japan coastline are making contact with some exposed resorts. These will gradually clear Honshu this morning, but will penetrate further inland over Hokkaido for a time this afternoon.
The first half of Friday will bring a period of snowfall to Honshu as a low develops off the Pacific coast. It’ll be just a light dusting for most resorts, although some resorts exposed to the east will see a little more accumulate, and milder temps may have snow levels slightly elevated.
Some blue sky should pop out Friday afternoon, although there’ll still be a light scattering of snow showers, especially over Central Honshu where they’ll become more frequent late in the day as colder westerlies start to arrive there.
Friday on Hokkaido will be mint, as any morning cloud will clear for a sunny and calm afternoon.
Saturday 9th & Sunday 10th of March
Central Honshu will cop a decent load of powder of about 15-40cm+ this weekend, thanks to the low out east dragging in colder air as it pulls further away. Winds will initially be coming from the west, then gradually turn northwest. Thus, snowfall rates will peak at different times at different resorts during Saturday into early Sunday, before clearing or easing through the second half of Sunday as pressures start to rise.
Northern Honshu will also see light-moderate snowfall during Saturday and some further light falls Sunday afternoon.
Hokkaido, meanwhile, will remain mostly sunny and calm during Saturday. W-NW winds show up on Sunday, bringing increased cloud cover and some light snow showers.
Monday 11th to Wednesday 13th of March
Monday will be mostly fine and calm for Central Honshu as a high drifts overhead. Mild W-SW winds further north will bring rain + snow to parts of Northern Honshu, which will also spread to Hokkaido during the second half of the day.
Tuesday will be an unpleasant one for Honshu, as a low from the west spreads rain + dense high-level snow and warm southerlies up the island. Colder N-NW winds arrive during Wednesday, with a period of moderate snowfall for Central Honshu and light snowfall for Northern Honshu. The bulk of it may fall before snow levels actually reach base levels, however, and once they do, snowfalls should quickly clear up.
Up on Hokkaido, skies will clear up Tuesday as a light, cold northerly flow cleans out any muck, and it’ll stay that way through Wednesday.
Extended Outlook
Warm spring-like westerlies are likely to develop over Japan though the back half of next week, with a period of rain + snow likely during next Thursday, before skies clear next Friday.
Then from next Sunday (17th March) onwards, a low from the west is likely to pass over Japan. Ensemble models are picking it to be a strong one, so after the initial warm, wet spell, conditions are looking ripe for a decent snowfall event, especially for Central Honshu. Fingers crossed!
That’s all from me today, and for the season. See you soon in Australia and New Zealand.
Grasshopper
Weekly North America Forecast – Powder for All as Storms Hammer the Northwest
Written Thursday morning 7th March (Pacific Time)
The last 7-days have topped the charts this season, after a major storm impacted the West early in the period. Massive numbers were reported in the Sierras, Cascades and central and northern Rockies, the highest of which was at Sugar Bowl in northern California where a whopping 330cm of snow fell.
Snow depths are now average or above for this time of year over the South, from Oregon, to southern Idaho and Wyoming southwards. It was a welcome perk-up for the North with deep powder on offer, despite snow depths still remaining below average there.
The next 7-days will see the entire West adding another decent layer of powder to the snowpack. After some initial light snowfall in the South, a series of active fronts will hammer the Canadian Coast Mountains before pushing inland and southwards. Each front, about three in total, will extend its reach further into the south, eventually hitting the central and southern Rockies during Tuesday and Wednesday.
This is my last forecast of the 2023-2024 North American snow season. It’s been a blast and a real pleasure to have been a part of it all. Hopefully I’ve helped you in some way or another to score the goods while also staying safe. Although I’m heading into hibernation until the southern hemisphere winter arrives, there’s still plenty more skiing to be done here. Snow depths are still building and some resorts are only just reaching peak season now. So go get amongst I say!
Thursday 7th & Friday 8th of March
Low pressure drifting eastwards over the south today and tomorrow will bring mostly light snowfall to the region, from the Sierras to Wyoming southwards.
However, slightly heavier falls will show up in parts of the Rockies where it’ll also be the most consistent, persisting through Friday while other areas clear. The largest accumulations are expected in southeast Wyoming (e.g. Snowy Range), Colorado, and New Mexico, where up to 15-25cm should fall, although up to 35-40cm could fall at Wolf Creek in the San Juan Mountains, southern Colorado.
A much colder, drier airmass currently sits over the north, but resorts there will undergo a warming trend as winds blow in from the Pacific, ahead of a front that pushes into the Canadian coast today. This front will kick off a couple of days of heavy snowfall in the Coast Mountains, while light to moderate falls make it inland into the northern Canadian Rockies.
Saturday 9th & Sunday 10th of March
The tail end of the front pushing into the Canadian Coast will whip over the Cascades, and northern Rockies during Saturday. A second front will follow close behind, passing over these same northern areas on Sunday.
The result will be periods of moderate to heavy snowfall in the Coast Mountains and Cascades throughout the weekend, and in the northern Sierras/Tahoe later on Sunday. Resorts in the northern Rockies, from the Sawtooth Range of Idaho northwards, will see periods of light-moderate snowfall.
Remaining snowfall in Colorado and New Mexico eventually clears up Saturday as high pressure settles in over the Central-Southern Rockies.
Snowfall accumulation (cm) for Saturday & Sunday (PT). Note: the old-school ratio of 10:1 is used here so values maybe underdone. Source: ECMWF, WeatherBELL
Monday 11th to Wednesday 13th of March
Snowfall continues across the north during Monday, with light falls also showing up as far south as Utah and Colorado, while the Tetons could also see moderate snowfall.
Later on Monday, a new front enters the northwest, with another round of heavy snowfall for the Coast Mountains, Cascades and northern Sierras through to early Tuesday.
This new front also brings another round of snowfall to the northern and central Rockies as it pushes inland during Tuesday. Snowfall will hang on in the central Rockies during Wednesday and spread to the southern Rockies, while they dry up elsewhere in the West as high pressure enters the north.
Extended Outlook
High pressure is likely to bring a quiet spell to the West from next Thursday (14th March) through the following weekend. The only potential action is at the edges of this high, in the far north and southern Rockies.
High pressure may continue to dominate over the North the following week, starting Monday 18th March, while it wanes over the South, potentially opening the door for more snowfall there.
That’s all from me today, and for the season, folks. See you all soon in Australia and New Zealand.
Grasshopper
Latest Outlooks
Follow the grasshopper
Subscribe to the Grasshopper’s dedicated emailing list and you’ll be the first to know when he gets wind of a snowfall via the twitch of his hypersensitive snow antennae.
Who is The Grasshopper ?
The Grasshopper. Some say he hatched one summer on a Himalayan plateau. As cold Autumn winds set in, he stumbled upon a scrap of goretex shed by some unfortunate climber and turned it into the smallest snowsuit ever. Then he strapped himself into a nearby leaf and carved his way down the mountains, hitching a ride with some hikers back to civilisation.
Now Mountainwatch’s resident meteorology sensei, this season we can expect a lot from the little critter. His beloved monthly outlooks across Australia and New Zealand over the southern hemisphere winter are being replaced with outlooks for both Japan and North America over November and December leading into the northern hemisphere winter. From there, the little critter will go into overdrive producing weekly forecasts for Japan and North America from December through to March. No doubt he’ll be run off his feet, so it’s a good thing he has six.
