Grasshopper’s Weekly Japan Forecast, Dec 30th – Cold and Consistent Snowfall up North, Multiple Cold Fronts to Bring Periods of Heavy Snowfall to Central Honshu.

December 30th, 2022
Freshies and a day for the trees at Hakuba 47 yesterday

Mountainwatch | The Grasshopper 

Written Friday 30thDecember (Japan Standard Time)

Kon’nichiwa everyone, hope you had a great Christmas. It’s been a great week here in Japan with most resorts receiving about 0.5m-1m of fresh snow. Temps did get a little warm at one point bringing some rain to Hokkaido, but a fresh wave of freezing NW winds have come through and the Japow is piling up again.

Temps will remain sufficiently cold over the next seven days as multiple waves of NW winds bring fluctuating snowfall rates to central Honshu, ranging from heavy to clear and sunny, especially for this weekend’s New Year’s celebrations. You couldn’t ask for any better!

Snowfall will be more consistent further north, mostly in the light-moderate category, and temps will also remain nice and frigid.

ECMWF ensemble model 7-day snowfall forecast for the week starting next Saturday, the 7th January. Source: WeatherBell

Friday 30thDec

After decent snowfall overnight, cold NW winds will continue to push in mostly light snowfall throughout the day onto the western side of Honshu and Hokkaido.

Saturday 31stDec

Light snow showers will become few and far between Saturday morning, as winds tend more to the W-SW and warm up a touch. The snow showers will even clear for most of central Honshu where we should see some glorious sunshine – the last rays of the year! Northern Honshu and Hokkaido too could see some rays, most likely during the afternoon.

Sunday 1stJan

While a cold front builds in the Sea of Japan during Sunday, snowfall will build over Hokkaido and northern Honshu, due to strengthening W-SW winds. The front will hit northern Honshu during the afternoon, bringing colder NW winds and heavy snowfall, which will eventually spread to central Honshu Sunday night after most resorts there celebrate New Year’s Day under mostly sunny skies.

Monday 2nd Jan to Thursday 5thJan

Strong, freezing W-NW winds will see light to moderate snowfall consistently falling over northern Honshu and Hokkaido from Monday through Wednesday, although we’re likely to see skies clear up over northern Honshu late Wednesday.

Snowfall will fluctuate over central Honshu, starting out heavy early Monday before gradually backing off through the day and possibly clearing that night for a mostly sunny Tuesday morning. Moderate to heavy snowfall will roll in again late Tuesday with a fresh wave of cold NW winds, before gradually backing off again later on Wednesday.

Thursday, Jan 5th & beyond

Cold NW winds will keep light snow showers going on Hokkaido, while northern Hokkaido may stay relatively clear, with only light snow showers likely to get going in the south at some point in the day.

Yet another wave of cold NW winds will bring heavy snowfall to central Honshu during the early hours of Thursday, which again will gradually ease through the day.

After some more decent snowfall for Central Honshu during Friday, and only smatterings further north, the following seven days may bring much more fluctuating conditions as models indicate a couple-few low-pressure systems passing over Japan from the south of the Sea of Japan or even the Yellow Sea.

As these lows approach, warm S-SW winds usually bring a period of heavy rain and heavy wet snow to high altitudes. However, once they pass through, freezing NW winds flow off the continent and heavy snowfall of the light n’ fluffy type ensues.

ECMWF model 7-day snowfall forecast (cm). Note, snow depths are calculated using a ratio of 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow, but here in Japan where the snow can be super fluffy we can see ratios of 1mm of rain = 2cm of snow. Source: WeatherBELL

Overall, ensemble models indicate snowfall during this period may not be as high as previous weeks, but still decent nonetheless.

Well, that’s all from me this week guys. Get amongst the powder, have a great New Year’s, and I’ll see you next week.