New Zealand Forecast – More Snow, Especially for Mt Ruapehu, as Temperatures Dip
Published early Wednesday, 16th July 2025
After fairly mild temperatures and often wet conditions over the past few weeks, colder air is finally turning up in New Zealand. There’s been fresh snow in the Southern Lakes overnight (Tuesday night), which arrived much later than earlier forecasts had expected, as well as on Mt Ruapehu, where it is desperately needed.
Snow will continue to fall on Mt Ruapehu until Wednesday afternoon, and there’ll be even more on Thursday and Friday as a low-pressure system rolls over the North Island. Ski fields here could receive between 20 and 50 cms on mid and upper slopes, with a bit less on the lower slopes.
A weak cold front will likely give the Southern Lakes a dusting of snow Friday night, then a 5-10cm shot of powder to Canterbury ski fields on Saturday, before giving Mt Ruapehu an extra dusting Saturday night. The front will bring a nice and cold airmass, which will allow extensive snowmaking throughout the weekend.
Wednesday 16th July
Skies will brighten over the Southern Lakes as the cloud cover gradually breaks up. Canterbury will also see some blue sky between cloud cover early and late in the day. Southwest winds over South Island ski fields gradually turn northwest.
Thursday 17th July
A fine day with light winds for the South Island, but cloud will push down over northern Canterbury later in the afternoon as northeast winds develop there.
Friday 18th July
Cloud builds over the Southern Lakes in the morning as northwest winds develop. There could also be a snow shower or two during the day, before a weak cold front from the west gives the region a dusting at night/overnight.
A nice, sunny day for Canterbury with a northwest breeze. At night, snow showers spread over the Mackenzie Basin in the south as the cold front reaches the area.
Saturday 19th July
Snowfall clears the Southern Lakes by dawn as the cold front exits the area, leaving partly cloudy skies with a light and cold southerly breeze.
Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to spread snow northwards over Canterbury throughout the day, along with southerly winds. The snow then clears the Mackenzie Basin in the afternoon and everywhere else after closing time, leaving up to 5 to 10cm of good-quality powder on ski fields.
Sunday 20th July
A clear, crisp winter’s day for the South Island, with light, cold southwest breezes.
Extended Forecast
Next week, another cold front from the west will bring a dusting of snow to the Southern Lakes on Monday, the 21st July, and possibly a bigger shot of powder to Canterbury and Mt Ruapehu, although I have low confidence on this as models aren’t in good agreement.
Cold southerlies straight out of the Antarctic freezer, starting Tuesday 22nd or Wednesday 23rd July, will bring more snow to the country through to Friday, the 25th July. At the moment, only a small top-up is expected, but it’ll be high-quality fluff, and Mt Ruapehu could see the largest totals, along with great snowmaking conditions.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great couple of days, and I’ll see you back here on Friday.
Grasshopper
