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New Zealand Forecast – Canterbury to Score in Prolonged Southerly Flow

 

Published early Wednesday, 30th July 2025

Yesterday, Tuesday, was a wild, wet, and windy day, with many ski fields closed. The storm has cleared the South Island, and Mt Ruapehu will see the last of it this Wednesday morning, with heavy rain and strong winds easing.

As the storm centre moves away to the east, cold southerly winds spread up the country and will persist into the weekend. Snow levels will gradually drop, reaching low levels on the South Island during Thursday and the North Island on Friday. The Southern Lakes and Mt Ruapehu will pick up a dusting of snow, while Canterbury scores a solid dump. Skies will clear up this weekend as a high-pressure system moves onto the country.

 

Latest pressure analysis and satellite image. Source: The BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Wednesday 30th July

It’s a partly cloudy start for South Island ski fields. Later in the morning, a southerly breeze develops, bringing showers of rain and high-level snow, which will be more persistent and heavier in Canterbury. Snow levels gradually drop through the second half of the day, reaching base levels at night, with a dusting for the Southern Lakes and a solid dump in Canterbury.

Thursday 31st July

Any leftover snow flurries in the Southern Lakes clear morning, but it’ll remain fairly cloudy with light winds.

Heavier snowfall in Canterbury to low levels gradually eases throughout the day. Cold southerly breezes.

Friday 1st August

Cloud over the Southern Lakes and Mackenzie Basin gradually clears for a fine afternoon as cold southerlies die away.

Light snowfall elsewhere in Canterbury clears in the afternoon, while strong, cold southerlies ease.

Saturday 2nd August

A mostly fine day across the South Island with south to southwest winds. However, cloud will turn up in the Southern Lakes during the afternoon, mostly on the Queenstown side, and Canterbury will get a dusting of snow at night.

Sunday 3rd August

A clear, bluebird day as cold southerlies clock around to a warmer east to northeasterly.

Extended Forecast

Skies will remain clear and dry over NZ ski fields through early next week, although easterlies will be strong over Mt Ruapehu and northwesterlies will pick up over the south as the high over the country drifts away to the east. A storm system from the west will likely pass over the country during the following few days, bringing a mix of rain and snow.

That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great couple of days, and I’ll see you back here on Friday.

Grasshopper

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