New Zealand Forecast – Bluebird Powder Down South, & A Tasman Low This Weekend
Published early Wednesday, 1st October 2025
The riding will be exceptional down in the Southern Lakes today, Wednesday, with blue bird skies and deep powder on offer after scoring a couple of dumps Sunday night and Tuesday night. Canterbury also received a dusting and will get another wee top-up today, Wednesday, as the millionth front of the season continues to move up the country, eventually reaching Mt Ruapehu with a top-up there too.
The next front comes in a bit warmer on Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and snow for the South Island, while Mt Ruapehu receives only rain. We’ll sneak in a nice day on Friday before a Tasman low moves in after dark, bringing another mix of rain and snow throughout the weekend.
Make the most of it while you can. Cardrona wraps up this Sunday, October 5th, with The Remarkables and Mt Hutt closing the following weekend on October 12th. Friday’s forecast will be the last of the season!
Wednesday 1st October
Snow clears over the Southern Lakes before dawn for a sunny powder day as cold southwesterlies ease.
Westerlies also ease over Canterbury early as a cold front crosses the region, bringing a wee top-up of snow throughout morning. Lingering flurries and cloud clear up later in the afternoon for a great end to the day with freshies to be had.
Light snowfall on Mt Ruapehu turns heavier for a time in the afternoon and evening as the front passes over. Around 5-15cm of snow is expected for the day. Brisk, cool westerly winds.
Thursday 2nd October
Clouds build over the South Island before another front from the west brings a mix of rain and snow, and possibly frozen rain too, to ski fields during the afternoon. Northwest breezes.
Mt Ruapehu will see some snow showers in the morning before the front brings rain during the afternoon and evening as strong westerly winds rise to gale in exposed spots.
Friday 3rd October
It’ll be a mainly fine, sunny day up in the mountains above low cloud filling the valleys and plains. However, high cloud will start to build in the afternoon as a low approaches from the Tasman Sea, which will spread rain southwards over the country as it makes landfall after dark. Northerly breezes develop.
Saturday 4th October
The low continues to cross the country with periods of rain for the ski fields. The rain will gradually turn to snow to at least mid-elevations on the South Island as northerly winds turn to a colder southerly.
Sunday 5th October
Snowfall over South Island ski fields gradually eases then clears as the low pulls away to the east and southerly winds start to ease.
Showers of rain and mid-upper level snow on Mt Ruapehu clears late after northwesterlies change southerly.
Extended Forecast
Next week, stormy westerlies return on Monday, October 6th, as the first of several fronts for the week crosses the country. Gales will be the norm, rather than the exception, with peaks in wind strength ahead of each passing front that will also bring cold changes, turning rain to snow. Despite rough conditions, the Southern Lakes could rack up a substantial totals, with lesser amounts for Canterbury, and lesser again for Mt Ruapehu where it’ll often be wet.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great couple of days, and I’ll see you back here on Friday.
Grasshopper
