BoM and CSIRO remind Australian Ski Industry of the bad news.

March 2nd, 2010

 

Snowball fights in jeopardy? Image – Falls Creek

Words – The Grasshopper, Mountainwatch.com Meteorologist

Climate change is real and humans are to blame. That’s the message from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, who this week released a document called State of the Climate, which paints a picture of what’s happened to our climate since 1960 and the changes yet to come.

So if the Bureau and CSIRO are so sure, why is there still so much debate about this in the media? And more importantly, what is all this going to mean for the snow-pack at your favourite Australian resort?

One of the main reasons for the debate in the media, sadly, is poor journalism. Token right-wing columnists on the nation’s newspapers are stirring up mischief at every turn, because that’s what they’re paid to do. They trumpet the demands of sceptics for more debate on the issue and ask for action to be put on hold until we know for sure.

Greenhouse gases to blame

But here’s the truth: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of scientists from the world’s most respected scientific organisations, has been having this debate for over 20 years.

In 2007, the Fourth IPCC Report concluded it is more than 90 per cent likely greenhouse gases released by humans are to blame for most the observed climate change since the mid 20th century. There is no new research or finding since 2007 that puts this in doubt.

If the climate was Dirty Harry, then this is the moment where Clint Eastwood is pointing a .44 Magnum at our heads and asking us “do you feel lucky, well do ya punks?” You can have more debate if you like, but when the stakes are this high and time is running out to make changes, I’m going to back the 90 per cent favourite.

Snow cover has decreased

So what about the snow? Will there be less or more? What will happen to the length of the season?

To get some answers, first we need to look at the general effects of climate change on Australia described in the State of the Climate report: Between 1960 and 2009 Australia’s average temperatures rose by about 0.7°C. In roughly the same period there’s been a 30 percent decrease in snow cover at Spencer’s Creek, one of the key measuring sites for the Snowy Hydro Scheme.

If the world’s greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels, temperatures are predicted to rise by another 0.6 to 1.5°C by 2030 and by 2.2 to 5.0°C by 2070. This will include warmer temperatures in winter and that’s bad news for snow.

 

What does 1°C warmer mean?

Take Thredbo for example, where the average daily minimum temperature in May up near Eagle’s Nest (1957m) is -1.3°C and the maximum is 5°C. A 1°C rise in average temperature by 2030 will mean temperatures spend more time above the freezing level and so any snow laid down in May is more likely to melt.

What’s more, warmer temperatures will reduce the number of nights that snow-making equipment can be used during May and June. Taking all this into account, I would guess the average start of the season would be pushed back a couple of weeks.

Then in the middle of July, where the average daily maximum at Eagle’s Nest is now -0.1°C, we’ll get more days when the temperature reaches above freezing. This is likely to mean more snow-melt during the day and poorer skiing conditions.

The number of days with record hot temperatures has increased each decade over the last 50 years, at the same time there have been fewer record cold days. 2000 – 2009 was Australia’s warmest decade on record

Shorter season

And finally in September, when the season is wrapping up, warmer conditions will accelerate the rate of snow-melt and frustrate the snowmakers. I would put my money on the season finishing a week or two sooner than normal. With the expected 0.6 to 1.5°C rise by 2030 the snow industry could be facing major challenges.

This is just back of the envelope stuff. But even back in 2003, a CSIRO study predicted an increase of 1°C could lead to reductions of 30 to 40 days in season length. In addition, the study predicted the cold conditions required for snow-making will occur less often and the snowline will rise about two hundred metres, greatly reducing the amount of ski-able terrain.

Kevin Hennessey, who leads the climate change risk adaptation and policy team at CSIRO, says the 2003 study is still the best research on the effect of climate change on snow in Australia but there are plans for additional research.

Snow on the snowgums could become a rare sight. Image – Falls Creek

Making snow

“The study needs to be updated to include the latest information on snow trends and the latest projections for climate in Australia,” says Hennessey, “and we need to make better allowance for developments in snow-making technology”.

Neil Thew, Business Development Manager for Perisher Resort, says the advances in snow-making technology over the last few years have been significant, allowing more efficient use of energy and water. Perisher has spent more than $19 million on snow-making equipment in the past three years.

Over 50 hectares of terrain are now covered by snow-guns and last year the resort produced 620,000 cubic meters of snow, a 50% increase on 2008. “We’ve made that investment with the full intention of skiing into the future,” says Thew. “We’re taking steps to ensure there’s better certainty for our guests.”

Changing the face of the alpine region

But try as we might to make snow, the atmosphere is still going to be the main source of this white gold. Winter rainfall over Southern Australia is expected to decrease in the future, but there’s a lot of uncertainty in these predictions.

What’s more certain is that with warmer conditions some precipitation that would have been snow will fall as rain. This change will pack a double punch – not only will less snow fall – but the increased rain will affect the snowpack.

Less snow is not just bad news for skiers. Reduced snow packs will threaten plant species that have adapted to the cold conditions. Catherine Pickering, an environmental scientist from Griffith University in the Gold Coast, says there are 21 species of plants, such as the “Snow Patch Daisy”, and “Dwarf Flea Bane”, that will be forced out by other plants colonising the once snowy terrain.

“These are plants that are naturally very slow growing and very low growing,” says Pickering.

“They’re only going to be a few centimetres tall with these lovely flowers that are often under a centimetre in size and it’s those sorts of things that are adapted to very specialised habitats that are going to be lost.”

A global issue

What about skiing in the rest of the world? Across the ditch in New Zealand, things are a bit more complicated. According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research based in Auckland, warmer, moister air could result in heavier snowfall events. But the snow season is expected to be shorter and the snowline to rise.

In fact, shorter seasons and rising snowlines are predicted at most ski resorts around the world, giving those resorts at higher, colder elevations a distinct advantage. It’s clear that a warmer climate will be bad news for the ski industry around the world.

Let’s be really pessimistic and assume the worst case scenario for 2070 – a 5°C rise in temperatures, which is looking more likely given the failure of the world’s leaders to reach any agreement on cutting emissions.

The average daily minimum temperature in July for Eagle’s Nest at Thredbo would rise from -5.3°C to -0.3°C. Temperatures, even at 2000m, will spend most of the time above freezing. Snow will still fall. It might even hang around in patches for a few weeks. But my bet is if humans don’t do enough to cut their greenhouse emissions, then by 2070 you can kiss the snow industry in Australia good-bye.
What does this mean for the snow industry and how is the industry working to ensure its survival? Read Mountainwatch.com’s industry response

Download the State of the Climate Report here