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Australian Alps Detailed Forecast

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The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

6:00am Tuesday 29 July 2014

Conditions Summary:
Windy today, with the possibility of some wind hold about the tops. We can expect some rain too, falling as snow about the peaks. If last night was a heavy one I might be tempted to stay in bed today.

Synoptic Outlook:
There’s a strong ridge of high pressure lying through the centre of the continent, and a deep low moving through the southern ocean. In between those two features there’s a band of strong westerly winds that are reaching up and tickling the Australian Alps.

Today we have north-westerlies and showers, falling as snow down to 1700m at first, but turning to rain throughout by midnight. The rain and the north-westerlies continue on Wednesday, and then to make it all better we get smashed by a cold change on Thursday/Friday.

The forecast totals have fallen to around 20cm today, basically because the high pressure is looking a little stronger. You may recall that yesterday I said this wouldn’t surprise me. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the model stick with a forecast of 20cm and for us to get 30cm anyway.

Image of the day:

This week is about the arm wrestle between the high over the continent and the low pressure out of picture to the south. The result is those strong westerlies smashing Tassie. Source:: MetService NZ and BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Tuesday 29 July:
Strong north-westerlies. A little snow followed by a little rain.

Wednesday 30 July:
Strong westerlies and showers right up to the peaks.

Thursday 31 July:
A cold westerly change delivers 5 to 15cm of snow to low levels.

Friday 1 August:
South-westerlies contribute another 5 to 15cm to low levels.

Extended Outlook:
The highs are back in control by the weekend, and the next one is a freaking monster. We should see another weather system make a play by the end of the week. I suspect that when it arrives it’s going to be a similar arm wrestle.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my new weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me hit me up at grasshoppermw@gmail.com, on my facebook page, twitter, or join in the Facebook discussion below.

Reggae's Video Snow Report