Thredbo

Australian Alps Detailed Forecast

The Mountainwatch Detailed Forecast is provided by our resident meteorology sensei "The Grasshopper". The analysis is issued every morning and is intended to provide an additional human element to the automated forecast data provided above. Sometimes we won't agree exactly with the model data - but if we ever call something significantly different we'll do our best to explain why.

7:00am Friday 23 June 2017

Conditions Summary:
It is mostly clear with temperatures generally between +1c and -3c. Watch out for the wind today. NW winds have been running at about 45km/h at Thredbo Top Station for the last couple of hours.

Synoptic Outlook:
Hold onto your beanie hats today as strong north-westerly winds will have the lifts swinging as a cold front passes to the south of the Aussie Alps. As I’ve mentioned over the last couple of days this weekend’s snow is going to be a bit disappointing compared with how it was looking this same time last week. The downward trend continues even further in today’s update.

Tomorrow will be cloudy as a disintegrating low slides in from The Bight. It won’t have much fight left in it by the time it arrives so we can expect just a few light snow showers or flurries which will leave a dusting in places. Winds will strengthen from the north-west on Sunday as we find ourselves between a tentacle of high pressure creeping in from the west and a low waaaay to the south of Tasmania. A weak cold front will brush by but the high’s defences will be too strong for it to do any real damage. We can expect a few light snow showers through the afternoon, with the best of the activity in VIC resorts which are better placed for this system. All the same we are only likely to see trace amounts to a few centimetres – nothing to get too excited about. The high will start to build back in from the west on Monday. It will remain cloudy with a few light snow showers in places.

Some of you may be a bit bummed about the lack of natural snow however it is worth keeping in mind that snowmaking should be good during the next four days as colder temperatures work their way in.

Image Of The Day:

The cold front to the south-west will pass to the south of the Aussie Alps today. Source:: BOM (vandalised by the Grasshopper)

Friday 23 June:
Partly cloudy. Strong north-westerly winds.

Saturday 24 June:
Cloudy. Moderate westerly winds. A few light snow showers/flurries, especially during the morning – trace amounts.

Sunday 25 June:
Cloudy with strong north-westerly winds and light snow showers developing in the afternoon. A couple of centimetres in places with VIC resorts most likely to get up to 5cm.

Monday 26 June:
Cloudy, moderate westerly winds and flurries/light snow showers giving a dusting in places.

Extended Outlook:
Confidence is low for the extended outlook today as there is considerable model disagreement, but that’s a good thing right!? At least we have possibilities. The atmosphere is finally moving and it looks promising that we will finally kick out the blocking high which has done its best to ruin June. The model disagreement is regarding the future placement of the high out over WA. Will it slowly progress east and strangle out any lows advancing from the south-west? Or alternatively, will it stay a healthy distance to the west potentially opening the door to a sneaky low for the second half of next week?

At the moment, it looks like the most likely outcome is that we will see some snow arrive from next Thursday through to Saturday. It will be cold too with the snow level around 800-1000m. As for amounts I will make a tentative estimation of 10-20cm or so but things should become clearer in the next couple of days. We still have a 50/50 chance for a storm around the 2/3rd of July but confidence is very low for this system at this point.

That's all from the Grasshopper. Wanna keep your finger on the pulse of all things snow? Join my weekly email list by filling in the box above. If you have a question or feedback for me join in the discussion below, or hit me up on facebook or twitter.