New Zealand Forecast – A Wild and Windy Week with a Huge Midweek Powder Dump on the Cards
Published early Monday, 24th August 2026
The weather really let rip over the weekend, with severe gales keeping most ski fields closed and limiting lift operations at the few that managed to open. However, a cold change swept through on Sunday, delivering 5-20cm of wind-blown powder to the Southern Lakes and a 2-5cm dusting to Canterbury, with more falling through the day. Mt Ruapehu also scored some fresh snow, mainly on the upper slopes.
It’ll remain wild and windy for much of the week ahead, with gale to severe-gale northwesterlies continuing to affect lift operations while blowing in a messy mix of rain and high-level snow at times.
Precipitation will become particularly heavy over the South Island on Wednesday and Thursday as a strong storm moves in from the west. However, cold air briefly sneaking in from the south should turn it all to heavy snow over the lower South Island and dampen the winds for a time. Accumulations could be huge over the Southern Lakes and Mackenzie Basin, with 40-80+cm on the cards, while central Canterbury could score a more modest 10-25cm. There’s still plenty of uncertainty around the forecast, though, so keep your eye on it.
Monday 24th August
Strong northwest winds continue over the South Island, becoming even stronger, reaching gale to severe-gale force in exposed areas. There’ll be a fair bit of cloud blowing over from the west, much of it high cloud, and snow showers about the Main Divide will reach Temple Basin, and possibly Treble Cone and Ohau at times too.
Cloud about the lower slopes of Mt Ruapehu will spread to the upper slopes during the afternoon with a few light, drizzy showers or snow flurries. Brisk southwest winds.
Tuesday 25th August
A front scoots up the South Island, weakening and slowing on its way north and bringing rain and high-level snow to the southern lakes early morning and to Canterbury throughout the day. Ski fields closest to the Main Divide will see the bulk of precipitation, particularly Temple Basin, and to a lesser extent Treble Cone and Ohau, while Mt Hutt in the east will likely stay dry with high cloud. Strong northwest winds will be at severe-gale force in Canterbury at first, but conditions will improve behind the front with winds abating and skies brightening.
A partly cloudy day for Mt Ruapehu with brisk westerly winds.
Wednesday 26th August
Another storm approaches the South Island from the west, bringing mostly rain and high-level snow at first, along with strong northwest winds that will continue to blow at gale to severe gale in Canterbury.
However, cold air sneaks up from the south, turning it all to snow over the Southern Lakes in the morning or afternoon, then later in Canterbury, with heavy falls on the cards while winds change to a light south-to-easterly.
Strong westerlies on Mt Ruapehu will see rain showers develop in the morning and then build through the afternoon.
Thursday 27th August
The storm continues to impact the South Island with heavy snowfall. However, it’ll turn to heavy rain in Canterbury during the morning and in the afternoon in the southern Lakes as warmer, stronger north-to-northwest winds return, likely reaching severe gale in Canterbury again. The winds and rain ease over the Southern Lakes at night as the storm centre crosses.
A partly cloudy, partly sunny day for Mt Ruapehu with a few light drizzly showers possible as westerly winds turn northerly.
Friday 28th August
Heavy rain and strong northwest winds over Canterbury ease early morning as the storm front moves away to the north. Then a cooler southwest change passes through the Southern Lakes later in the morning, and Canterbury in the afternoon, bringing showers which will fall as snow on mid and upper slopes.
Mt Ruapehu sees heavy rain and gale northerly winds as the front from the south crosses during the latter half of the day.
Extended Forecast
This weekend and early next week, from Saturday 29 August to around Wednesday the 2nd or Thursday the 3rd of September, several cold fronts in a strong west to southwest flow are expected to whip up the country, likely bringing light shots of powder. It’s a real changeable spring-like pattern that often brings four seasons in a day. The Southern Lakes are well placed to make the most of snowfall, and so could Mt Ruapehu if snow levels manage to drop low enough. Canterbury may be too sheltered, unless winds manage to turn southerly enough as opposed to westerly.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out NZ forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great couple of days, and I’ll see you back here on Wednesday.
Grasshopper
