An El Niño Season : Will It Be Another 2015 or a Repeat of 2023?

Mountainwatch | Reggae Elliss

While it may be a very slow start to the 2026 season for natural snowfall, that’s not particularly unusual for early June. Most seasons begin on the opening weekend with only one or two beginner lifts operating on limited terrain. Usually, however, snowmakers have the opportunity to make up for the lack of natural snow and gradually expand terrain offerings in the ensuing weeks as resorts wait for the next storm.

But not this year.

Unseasonably warm temperatures since opening weekend have limited snowmaking to Thredbo and Mt Buller, both of which have all-weather snow factories. After the second-warmest May since 1910, southeastern Australia is now experiencing its warmest start to winter in a century, with daytime temperatures running roughly 2°C to 5°C above average.

In his first season outlook back in April, the Grasshopper noted that a warming Pacific and pre-winter climate drivers were indicating a strong El Niño was highly likely this winter. The BOM finally declared yesterday that Australia has reached El Niño thresholds and, given that El Niño typically brings above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation to southeastern Australia, current conditions aren’t particularly surprising.

Australian snow seasons are often defined by fine margins, and few comparisons illustrate that better than 2015 and 2023. Both winters, like this season, began under the shadow of a developing El Niño, raising concerns about warmer, drier conditions.

Since launching Mountainwatch in 2009, we’ve published a season wrap at the end of every Australian winter. They’re still available on the site—just search for them. It’s a good way to confirm what the past 16 seasons were really like, rather than relying on hazy memories of the overall picture.

To get a handle on how this El Niño winter may pan out, we revisited our Australian season wraps for 2015 and 2023 and found two very different outcomes. While the 2015 season recovered from a slow start to become a solid winter with lifts operating through to the October long weekend, 2023 never truly escaped the grip of unfavourable weather and ended as one of the most challenging seasons in recent years.

In the 2015 Australian Snow Season Wrap, A Season of Highs and Lows, the winter began slowly, with little natural snowfall until mid-July. However, a series of strong storms then delivered more than a metre of snow over a week, opening most terrain and creating excellent skiing through August. A late-August storm and cool September weather helped extend the season, which finished strongly with quality spring skiing and lifts closing on the first weekend of October.

In contrast, 2023’s season wrap, The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, described that winter as one of the poorest seasons in years. Despite a promising late June and a major July storm, warm temperatures in late July, limited August snowfall, persistent hairdryer northwesterlies and rapid spring melting severely reduced snow cover. Resorts closed early, with some shutting weeks before the traditional October long weekend.

The lesson from both 2015 and 2023 is that early-season conditions rarely tell the whole story. One season transformed from a worrying start into a pretty good season, while the other never quite recovered despite periods of promise. With a strong El Niño now officially in place and winter only just beginning, there are reasons for both caution and cautious optimism.

For now we’re all hoping for a pattern change and we may see that soon, the Grasshopper’s forecast today calling for snow showers and colder temps on the weekend. That and a few well-timed storms is what we need, because as Australia’s snow history repeatedly shows, a season can still be made – or broken – in the weeks ahead.