New Zealand Forecast – Canterbury Eyes the Mother Lode in Upcoming Winter Storm
Published early Friday, 3rd July 2026
It’s been a nice run of sunny, settled weather, but it’s time we saw some more action to kick this season into gear. The weather starts to turn today, Friday, as a storm approaches from the west, rolling across the country from late Friday through mid-next week.
The leading storm front will bring gale-to-severe gale northwest winds and heavy rain to the South Island on Saturday, but icy cold southerlies chasing up behind it will give the Southern Lakes a 10-15+ cm shot of quality powder by early Sunday.
The icy southerlies hit midday Sunday. Ski fields here will score the mother lode, with Mt Hutt and the Craigieburn Range fields picked to receive between 35-60cm after solid snowfall through until late Tuesday, while heavy snowfall in the north will absolutely bury Mt Lyford in over 150cm! Another load is expected here from Wednesday into Friday next week.
Mt Ruapehu, unfortunately, misses much of the action and sits north of the cold air, so it will only see a few shots of snow on mid and upper slopes. However, it’ll be a beaut day for Opening Day at Whakapapa and Turoa on Saturday.
Friday 3rd July
A cloudy day for the Southern Lakes with strengthening northwesterlies. Showers of rain and high-level snow spilling over the Main Divide will likely reach Treble Cone in the afternoon, then the other ski fields in the evening, before turning to widespread rain overnight.
Canterbury will see increasing high cloud and strengthening northwest winds.
Another beaut day on Mt Ruapehu with sunny skies and a super light northwest breeze. Perfect for Opening Day at Whakapapa and Turoa.
Saturday 4th July
A stormy day for the Southern Lakes with heavy rain and strong, gusty northerlies as an active front passes over. The rain eases to showers later in the afternoon with snow falling to around 1800m, and winds will back off to a lighter northwester.
Canterbury will be lucky to have anything open, with severe-gale northwesterlies while a front spreads rain northward across the region during the day. Conditions ease in the evening after the front passes through, with some snow falling at higher elevations as cooler air starts to arrive.
Mt Ruapehu will have a fine start, but clouds will then build as northerly winds strengthen. There’ll be a period of rain with snow falling above 1800m overnight as the front passes over.
Sunday 5th July
Cold southerlies arrive at the Southern Lakes during the wee hours shortly after midnight, bringing high-quality snow to low levels. The snow will ease to flurries during the morning, by which time the ski fields should have banked a tidy 10-15 cm or more.
A clear start for Canterbury as northwest winds die out. Snow then spreads northwards through the middle of the day as cold southerlies arrive. The snow will fall to low levels, building into heavy falls overnight as winds become strong.
A calm patch between storm fronts will bring partly cloudy skies to Mt Ruapehu while northwest breezes clock northeast.
Monday 6th July
Icy-cold southeasterlies for the Southern Lakes push in a deck of cloud at around the height of the ski fields, reducing visibility and bringing the odd snow flurry.
Canterbury continues to receive good snowfall throughout the day, falling to near 400m, affecting some roads and towns. Like the last storm, the heaviest falls will be in the north, benefiting wee Mt Lyford, which will get absolutely buried!
Mt Ruapehu will pick up a shot of less than 10cm of snow on mid-upper slopes as a rain band passes over during the morning, leaving partly sunny skies for the afternoon. Northeasterly winds.
Tuesday 7th July
The cold southeasterlies for the Southern Lakes gradually ease and turn eastwards, allowing clouds to clear the ski fields for a sunny afternoon.
In Canterbury, Mt Hutt and the Craigieburn Range ski fields will see light snowfall to low levels until late, while the north continues to get buried under heavy snowfall. Icy southerly winds, strong in the north, ease late.
Mt Ruapehu continues to miss out on the action with a mostly fine day and southeasterly breezes.
Extended Forecast
Before the storm departs for good, an extra surge of southeasterly onshore winds will see Canterbury score another load of snow in the 10-30 cm range from Wednesday, the 8th, into Friday, the 10th, of July. The Southern Lakes could also receive a dusting alongside continued snowmaking.
At the same time, the southerlies finally make it to Mt Ruapehu, but they won’t be nearly as cold, with a load of snow expected on mid-upper slopes. However, colder temps over the following few days should allow the snow guns to partly make up for the lack of snow on the lower slopes.
The next active storm period looks to kick off from Tuesday, the 14th of July, with a good chance for cold temperatures and snow in the mix.
That’s all from me today, folks. I’m sending out NZ forecasts every Monday, Wednesday and Friday throughout the season. Have a great weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Monday.
Grasshopper
